San Diego's 2 in the first and 3 more in the second put the Padres up 5-2 before San Francisco had settled in, and a run in the fourth pushed the lead to 6-2. San Francisco chipped back with single runs in the fifth and sixth to get within 2, but the rally stalled there.
That stretch lined up with the Polymarket chat's busiest 5 minutes of the day, right as the Giants trimmed the deficit. "Yall itching for a SF win huh," one poster wrote as the room lit up, while someone holding San Francisco was already grumbling that "Poly will be facing lawsuits down the road trust." A room of nearly 10,000 members, well above a typical night for a game like this, tracked with how tight the finish actually got.
San Diego's win kept its recent surge intact, while San Francisco fell to 2-3 over its last 5 games and stayed well under .500 on the season. The Giants got worse news the next day too, with Rafael Devers set for season-ending surgery on his abdomen — one more subtraction from a lineup already thinned by Chapman, Adames and Susac.
San Diego's defense wasn't perfect — 2 errors kept the final margin from getting more comfortable — but the pitching matchup and the injury math both broke the Padres' way on this get-away day, and it was enough.