Lucas Giolito (2-0, 2.70) heads back to the franchise that drafted him 14 years ago, and he draws a Nationals lineup that has actually been putting a beating on the baseball. Washington counters with Paxton Schultz (0-2, 5.30), who is essentially functioning as an opener — reports out of D.C. peg him for 1-2 innings before the bullpen takes the rest. First pitch is 5:45 PM CT.
Giolito's last time out was 5 shutout innings against the A's with 4 hits, 2 strikeouts, and 5 walks on 86 pitches — the line says "win" but the command was sketchy. Behind Schultz, the Nats are going to need length from a depleted staff. Jake Irvin just hit the 15-day IL with a shoulder strain, joining Trevor Williams, DJ Herz, and Josiah Gray on the 60-day. That's basically a full rotation watching from the trainer's room.
The Padres' offense has fallen off a cliff. Four straight losses, 6 total runs, 2 of those losses were 3-0 shutouts at the hands of the Phillies. With Jake Cronenworth on the concussion IL and Luis Campusano still working back from a toe injury, this is a lineup leaning hard on the top of the order to do everything. Pinnacle has San Diego at -109 on the moneyline and -1.5 at +147, which feels generous to a team that hasn't pushed across more than 3 in nearly a week.
- Day-To-DayBlake Hunt C — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 7-day ilJake Cronenworth 2B — The Padres placed Cronenworth on the 7-day concussion injured list Tuesday, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano C — Campusano (toe) has progressed to swinging in the batting cage and catching off a pitching machine, per MLB.com.
- 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron SP — Waldron (forearm) could take on a bullpen role when he returns from the 15-day injured list, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez SP — Marquez (forearm) has progressed to throwing off a mound, per MLB.com.
- 15-Day-ILNick Pivetta SP — Padres manager Craig Stammen told reporters Wednesday that Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 60-Day-ILJhony Brito RP — Brito (forearm) had his minor-league rehab statement moved from the Arizona Complex League to Double-A San Antonio on Sunday, per MLB.com.
- 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove SP — The Padres transferred Musgrove (elbow) to the 60-day injured list on Thursday.
- Day-To-DayTyler Stuart SP — no
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum DH — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora SP — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana RP — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
- 15-Day-ILJake Irvin SP — The Nationals placed Irvin on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to a right shoulder strain.
- 60-Day-ILMax Kranick RP — The Nationals transferred Kranick (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
- 60-Day-ILDJ Herz SP — Herz (elbow) will throw to live hitters Friday at the Nationals' spring training facility in Florida, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams SP — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
Washington, on the other hand, just rattled off 4 in a row before dropping a 3-2 game to Cleveland, and per reports they're carrying a winning May for the first time since 2018. The Blake Butera era is starting to look like something. Through the first third of the year the Nats have been a top-10 offense across nearly every category — not a rebuild story anymore, an actual baseball team.
The total is sitting at 8.5 with the under juiced to -111. Giolito's been efficient, Schultz is an opener, and the Padres can't score. The under has a strong-looking shape on paper, but the Nationals' bats are the variable that could blow it up. Game is essentially a coin flip on the moneyline — Pinnacle has Washington at -101, San Diego at -109 — and that feels about right.