First pitch is 1:35 PM ET at Nationals Park, with the Padres handing the ball to Griffin Canning (0-3, 7.54) and the Nats countering with Zack Littell (4-4, 5.23). Pinnacle has San Diego at -127 on the moneyline and the total sitting at 9.5, which is a polite way of saying the market still trusts the Padres lineup more than either of these arms.
Canning is the bigger question mark. He's posted a 9.00 ERA across his first four starts since being activated off the IL, and his command has been the issue — he infamously walked four straight Brewers in one first inning earlier this month. The xFIP says he's been closer to league-average than his ERA, but the Nationals just hung 9 on this rotation yesterday, so 'trust the underlying numbers' is a tough sell right now.
Washington has actually been the better team lately. They took 2 of 3 from Cleveland on the road, dropped the Friday opener of this series 7-5, then steamrolled the Padres 9-4 on Saturday in a game that featured a 6-run 7th and the first ejection of rookie Padres manager Craig Stammen. Fernando Tatis Jr. finally hit his first homer of the season in that one, and it still wasn't enough.
Littell, for his part, has quietly stitched together one of the best stretches of his year — a 2.13 ERA over his last 3 outings in May after a horrendous April. The Nats also caught a break: their actual ace problem is the IL, which is housing Jake Irvin, DJ Herz, Trevor Williams, and Josiah Gray. Littell taking the ball with any kind of competence is a win for them on its own.
- Day-To-DayBlake Hunt C — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 7-Day ILJake Cronenworth 2B — Cronenworth (concussion) has been running, playing catch and taking light swings in the batting cage, but he remains without a definitive timetable for a return, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union Tribune reports.
- 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano C — Campusano (toe) has been catching bullpens and is swinging pain-free, per MLB.com.
- 15-Day-ILNick Pivetta SP — Pivetta (forearm) played catch Friday, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union Tribune reports.
- 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez SP — Marquez (forearm) threw live batting practice Thursday, and his next step will be a minor-league rehab appearance, per MLB.com.
- 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron SP — Waldron (forearm) could take on a bullpen role when he returns from the 15-day injured list, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove SP — Musgrove (elbow) is slated to soon begin a throwing program and is targeting a return after the All-Star break, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports.
- 60-Day-ILJhony Brito RP — Brito (forearm) had his minor-league rehab statement moved from the Arizona Complex League to Double-A San Antonio on Sunday, per MLB.com.
- Day-To-DayTyler Stuart SP — no
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum DH — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora SP — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana RP — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
- 15-Day-ILJake Irvin SP — The Nationals placed Irvin on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to a right shoulder strain.
- 60-Day-ILMax Kranick RP — The Nationals transferred Kranick (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
- 60-Day-ILDJ Herz SP — Herz (elbow) will throw to live hitters Friday at the Nationals' spring training facility in Florida, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams SP — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
San Diego's injury list is the real subplot here. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Nick Pivetta, German Marquez, and Matt Waldron are all on the shelf, which is how you end up handing a divisional-implications start to a guy carrying a 7.54. Jake Cronenworth (concussion) is still without a timetable. The Padres are good enough to be -127 favorites on the road; they're also held together with tape.
The pick: DraftKings has the over/under at 7.5 while Pinnacle's true number is 9.5 — that's a 2-run gap, which is enormous and usually means a stale DK line. Two shaky starters, two lineups that just combined for 13 runs yesterday, and a Padres bullpen that's been overworked. Lean Padres if you have to play a side, but the spot screams 'watch and grab a live total.'