Griffin Canning (0-4, 6.34) draws Shane Baz (3-6, 4.09) for the series opener. On paper that looks like a mismatch in the home team's favor, but Canning's last time out was actually one of his cleaner nights of the year — 5 innings, 1 earned, 6 punchouts against the Mets in a no-decision. Baz, meanwhile, just took a loss in Toronto despite giving up only 1 earned over 5.2.
The Padres are playing some of their best ball in weeks at exactly the right time. After dropping 11 of 13, San Diego just took 2 of 3 from Cincinnati and showed up to Baltimore at 35-32. The Orioles flipped their own script too — they had lost 3 straight before back-to-back beatdowns of Seattle (7-2 and 7-5) pulled them to 33-37 and back into a vaguely hopeful spot in the AL East basement.
The injury list is where this game gets ugly, and it's mostly an Orioles problem. Baltimore is without Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg (Tommy John), Zach Eflin (Tommy John), Dean Kremer, Chris Bassitt, Cade Povich, Felix Bautista, and Ryan Helsley. That's most of a rotation and a back end of a bullpen. San Diego is patched up too — Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta, German Marquez and Matt Waldron are all on the shelf, and Jake Cronenworth is still working back from a concussion — but the Padres have at least kept their lineup mostly intact with Xander Bogaerts on the paternity list.
- Day-To-DayMiguel Andujar DH — Andujar (hamstring) remains out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Reds.
- 7-Day ILJake Cronenworth 2B — Cronenworth (concussion) has been participating in light baseball activities and is "ramping up," per MLB.com.
- 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano C — Campusano (toe) has been catching bullpens and is swinging pain-free, per MLB.com.
- paternityXander Bogaerts SS — Bogaerts went 1-for-3 with a solo home run and a walk against Washington in a loss Saturday.
- 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron SP — Waldron (forearm) is scheduled to throw two innings of a bullpen session Tuesday and is on track to start a rehab assignment with Triple-A El Paso this Sunday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez SP — Marquez (forearm) tossed four scoreless innings for Triple-A El Paso on Sunday, allowing one hit and issuing one walk while striking out two batters.
- 15-Day-ILJeremiah Estrada RP — Estrada (2-2) picked up the loss after giving up the eventual game-winning run in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday.
- 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove SP — Musgrove (elbow) started playing catch in late May, per MLB.com.
- Day-To-DayJhonkensy Noel RF — Noel was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A Norfolk on Monday with left wrist inflammation, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- Day-To-DayLevi Wells P — Wells underwent successful core-muscle surgery Thursday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
- Day-To-DayRichard Guasch SP — no
- Day-To-DayWill Robertson LF — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- 10-Day-ILDylan Beavers RF — Beavers (oblique) hit in the batting cage Wednesday, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- 15-Day-ILRyan Helsley RP — Helsley (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Norfolk on Thursday, Cordell Woodland of 105.7 The Fan Baltimore reports.
- 15-Day-ILCade Povich SP — Povich (elbow) will resume throwing bullpen sessions this week, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- 15-Day-ILChris Bassitt SP — Bassitt (back) is travelling to rejoin the Orioles in Toronto on Friday and could make his next start Monday against the Mariners, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
The trend that matters for Baz: per recent reporting, he's been on a quality-start heater coming into June, with a sub-2.50 ERA across a 4-outing stretch before the Toronto loss. Walks have been the wart — he keeps nibbling — and a Padres lineup that grinds counts can absolutely make him pay for that. Canning is the bigger question. The strikeouts have been there all year (33 K in 32.2 IP), but the ERA tells you he gets hit hard when he gets hit.
Camden Yards plays differently than it used to, but this is still a spot where a struggling righty can give up the cheap one to right-center. Total sits at 8.5 and the Orioles are a short home favorite. First pitch 7:05 PM ET — get there or DVR it.