Barstool Bush
Predictions

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies

By Bush StaffUpdated 81d ago·2 min read
San Diego PadresSD(32-26)
Philadelphia PhilliesPHI(30-29)
2—3
FINAL
123456789RHE
SD
002000000270
PHI
00020100—390

Randy Vásquez (5-3, 3.28) gets the ball for the Padres against Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.72) for a 6:40 PM ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. It's a rematch of the May 26 starters — Nola won that one with 6 innings of 2-run ball, while Vásquez took the L after coughing up 4 earned over 5.2.

San Diego Padres
Randy Vásquez
(6-4)·3.63 ERA
May 26 vs Phillies
L
5.2IP
4ER
2K
1BB
99P
06/02 Lineup
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola
(3-4)·5.86 ERA
May 26 @ Padres
W
6.0IP
2ER
5K
0BB
80P
06/02 Lineup

The numbers say one thing, the vibes say another. Nola owns the better recent line, but his season-long 5.72 ERA is the actual story — he's now had back-to-back years with an ERA north of 6.00 through his first 10 starts, and the $172M contract conversation in Philly has officially gotten loud. Vásquez, meanwhile, opened the year 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and has dropped his last two.

San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(32-26)
May 31L@ Nationals2-4
May 30L@ Nationals4-9
May 29W@ Nationals7-5
May 27Lvs Phillies0-3
May 27Lvs Phillies3-4
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(30-29)
May 31L@ Dodgers1-9
May 31W@ Dodgers4-3
May 30L@ Dodgers2-4
May 27W@ Padres3-0
May 27W@ Padres4-3

San Diego is 1-4 over the last 5 and just got taken down by the Nationals, which is the kind of week that turns a 32-26 record into a manager-on-the-hot-seat segment. The Phillies are scuffling in their own way — they got blasted 9-1 by the Dodgers on Saturday to drop them back to .500-ish at 30-29. Neither side is rolling into Tuesday with momentum.

San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(10)
  • Day-To-DayBlake Hunt (C) — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.05/08
  • 7-Day ILJake Cronenworth (2B) — Cronenworth (concussion) has been running, playing catch and taking light swings in the batting cage, but he remains without a definitive timetable for a return, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union Tribune reports.05/31
  • 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano (C) — Campusano (toe) has been catching bullpens and is swinging pain-free, per MLB.com.05/31
  • 15-Day-ILNick Pivetta (SP) — Pivetta (forearm) played catch Friday, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union Tribune reports.05/31
  • 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez (SP) — Marquez (forearm) threw live batting practice Thursday, and his next step will be a minor-league rehab appearance, per MLB.com.05/31
  • 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron (SP) — Waldron (forearm) could take on a bullpen role when he returns from the 15-day injured list, MLB.com reports.05/22
  • OutYu Darvish (SP) — Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.05/12
  • 60-Day-ILJhony Brito (RP) — Brito (forearm) struck out four batters and allowed one hit and no walks over six shutout innings Friday in a rehab start for Double-A San Antonio.06/01
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove (SP) — Musgrove (elbow) is slated to begin a throwing program soon and is targeting a return after the All-Star break, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports.05/31
  • 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing (RP) — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(10)
  • Day-To-DayJ.T. Realmuto (C) — Realmuto (wrist) underwent X-rays, which came back negative, following Sunday's 9-1 loss to the Dodgers, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/01
  • Day-To-DayCarson DeMartini (SS)
  • Day-To-DayBryan Rincon (SS) — The Phillies promoted Rincon from Single-A Clearwater to High-A Jersey Shore on Aug. 15.05/27
  • Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony (1B) — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayRene Pinto (C) — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayDaniel Robert (RP) — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary (C) — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • paternityAaron Nola (SP) — Nola (3-4) allowed two runs on three hits and struck out five without walking a batter over six innings to earn the win over the Padres on Tuesday.05/29
  • 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus (RP) — Backhus (elbow) played catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports.05/14
  • suspensionJohan Rojas (CF) — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.05/08

The Padres rotation injury list reads like a depth chart: Pivetta, Musgrove, Marquez, Darvish, Waldron — all out. That's why Vásquez keeps getting the ball every fifth day no matter what the last outing looked like. Philly is healthier on the mound but watching J.T. Realmuto day-to-day with a wrist after that Dodgers loss, with X-rays coming back negative.

Market has the Phillies at -124 with a total of 8.5. Given Nola's full-season form, the under feels like the side you have to talk yourself off of, but Vásquez has already given up 10 runs in 10 innings against this Philly lineup this year — Harper, Realmuto and Turner all took him deep last time in the first three innings alone. Bryce sees this guy and licks his chops.

Sources

MLBSan Diego PadresPhiladelphia PhilliesPolymarketKalshiRandy VásquezAaron Nola