Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays

By Bush StaffUpdated 72d ago·2 min read
Philadelphia PhilliesPHI(36-31)
Toronto Blue JaysTOR(33-35)
74
FINAL
123456789RHE
PHI
1032001007101
TOR
000001300480

First pitch is 7:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre, and the storyline writes itself. Scherzer (1-3, 9.64 ERA) hasn't pitched in the majors since getting torched for 7 earned in 2.1 innings on April 24. Luzardo (4-4, 4.56) comes in off a 6-inning, 5-ER no-decision against the White Sox and the kind of FIP that says he's been better than the line says.

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FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Phillies(36-31)
LWWLW
7
Blue Jays(33-35)
WLWWL
4
Best BetPhillies -137
Pregame

Phillies opened -141 and have been bet down to -124, which is a notable retreat given Scherzer's 9.64 ERA and a 7-week layoff with forearm trouble. Luzardo's underlying numbers (3.40 FIP, elite hard-hit rate) are quietly much better than the ERA. Take the Phillies before this drifts further.

There's a layer here beyond the arms. Don Mattingly is in the visiting dugout as Phillies interim manager after taking the job in late April, his first trip back to Toronto since managing the Jays to last fall's World Series. He knows this roster inside and out, and the Phillies (36-31) have responded — they took the opener 5-2 before dropping a 3-2 walk-off Tuesday when Dylan Cease came off the IL and punched out 11.

Philadelphia Phillies
Jesús Luzardo
(6-4)·4.39 ERA
Jun 5 vs White Sox
ND
6.0IP
5ER
2K
2BB
90P
06/10 Lineup
Toronto Blue Jays
Max Scherzer
(1-4)·10.23 ERA
Apr 24 vs Guardians
L
2.1IP
7ER
0K
3BB
82P
06/10 Lineup
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(36-31)
Jun 9L@ Blue Jays2-3
Jun 8W@ Blue Jays5-2
Jun 7Wvs White Sox9-5
Jun 6Lvs White Sox3-6
Jun 5Wvs White Sox8-6
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
(33-35)
Jun 9Wvs Phillies3-2
Jun 8Lvs Phillies2-5
Jun 7Wvs Orioles6-4
Jun 6Wvs Orioles6-4
Jun 5Lvs Orioles3-13

Toronto (33-35) is hanging around .500 with a patchwork pitching staff, and getting Cease and Scherzer back in 24 hours is basically the deadline arriving early. The catch: Scherzer admitted he's chasing strikeout 3,500 — he's 1 K away from becoming the 11th pitcher in history to get there — and he's doing it on a forearm that just stopped barking. Rust is the operative word.

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(7)
  • Day-To-DayAndrew Walling (RP)
  • Day-To-DayCarson DeMartini (SS)
  • Day-To-DayRene Pinto (C)Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayDaniel Robert (RP)Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary (C)Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus (RP)Backhus (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday.06/09
  • suspensionJohan Rojas (CF)Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.05/08
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
(18)
  • Day-To-DayDaulton Varsho (CF)Manager John Schneider said that Varsho, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Phillies, had an MRI on his left wrist come back negative, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.06/09
  • Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart (C)no05/08
  • Day-To-DayChay Yeager (RP)Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayCJ Stubbs (C)The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.05/08
  • Day-To-DayJaven Coleman (P)no05/08
  • 10-Day-ILAddison Barger (RF)Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Monday that Barger (elbow) is "making progress" while continuing to ramp up his hitting at the team's complex in Florida, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.06/08
  • 10-Day-ILLenyn Sosa (2B)Sosa went 2-for-5 with a solo home run, an additional run and an additional RBI on Saturday against the Twins in an 11-4 victory.05/28
  • 15-Day-ILMax Scherzer (SP)Scherzer (forearm) threw a bullpen session Sunday and expressed confidence that he would be available to pitch against the Phillies on Wednesday, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.06/07
  • developmental listFernando Perez (P)
  • 60-Day-ILLazaro Estrada (RP)Estrada (shoulder) struck out three over three perfect innings of relief Sunday in a rehab appearance with Triple-A Buffalo.06/09
  • 60-Day-ILShane Bieber (SP)Bieber (elbow) is scheduled to make the fourth start of his rehab assignment Thursday with Triple-A Buffalo, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.06/09
  • 60-Day-ILAlejandro Kirk (C)Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Kirk (thumb) could be available to return from the 60-day injured list as soon as Friday, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.06/08
  • 60-Day-ILYimi Garcia (RP)Garcia's (elbow) next rehab outing will be Saturday with Single-A Dunedin, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILJoe Mantiply (RP)Mantiply will undergo arthroscopic surgery to repair some damage in his left knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILJose Berrios (SP)Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.05/27
  • 60-Day-ILAnthony Santander (RF)Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILCody Ponce (SP)Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
  • 60-Day-ILBowden Francis (SP)The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08

The Jays are also still without Daulton Varsho (wrist MRI came back clean Tuesday but he's out again), Alejandro Kirk, Anthony Santander and Addison Barger. That's a lot of bat missing on a night you're starting a guy who hasn't faced big-league hitters in 7 weeks. The Phillies, by comparison, have most of their lineup intact and are riding a quietly strong Luzardo run — best Phillies start of the year under Mattingly came from him.

Bet-wise, the market has nudged the Phillies' moneyline from -141 down to -124, which is a chunk of value bleeding toward Toronto. That's the bullpen-and-Scherzer-uncertainty discount, and it's how you end up with a closer game than the matchup on paper suggests.

MLBPhiladelphia PhilliesToronto Blue JaysPolymarketKalshiJesús LuzardoMax Scherzer