Philadelphia and Atlanta have spent most of September playing each other, and Saturday in Atlanta adds one more round to a division race that keeps refusing to settle.
+Chris Sale having one of his best seasons on the mound
+Reynaldo Lopez back from the injured list adds length
+Still holds first place in the NL East
−Lost Bryce Elder to knee surgery for several weeks
−Bullpen down Robert Suarez and Joe Jimenez for the year
−Blown out at home by Tampa Bay, 7-1, most recently
Nobody's officially confirmed a starter for Saturday, and that's not a small thing right now. Atlanta lost Bryce Elder to right knee surgery this week, a real dent in the rotation behind Chris Sale that will linger for the next several weeks. Sale himself has been the best pitcher in either dugout, closing out August with a shutout of the Dodgers and rolling into September looking every bit the ace Atlanta needs to hold the division. Philadelphia's rotation has answered back at times — Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler both turned in quality starts against Atlanta earlier this month — but whoever gets the ball Saturday is pitching in a building where the visitors just haven't gone away.
The injury picture cuts both ways. Atlanta is already without Jurickson Profar for the season, and the bullpen is down Robert Suarez and Joe Jimenez for good — Reynaldo Lopez's return from the injured list this week is one of the only additions on that side of the roster. Philadelphia's issue is more slump than surgery: Orion Kerkering, the club's top right-handed reliever for most of the summer, has scuffled badly enough since the All-Star break that manager Don Mattingly has started easing him into lower-leverage innings, leaning more on rookie Alex McFarlane in the meantime.
Both sides arrive off a loss. Atlanta got blown out at home by Tampa Bay, 7-1, on September 8, and Philadelphia dropped a 6-5 decision to Houston the same day — reminders that neither club can afford to coast with the stretch run this tight.
There's more baseball before any of this settles. Philadelphia hosts Houston twice more, then heads to Atlanta for one more meeting on Friday — the two clubs will have played five times in this stretch by the time Saturday's game starts. Atlanta gets two home games against Tampa Bay first, a shot at shaking off the September 8 loss before that same Friday rematch. However Friday goes, Saturday in Atlanta effectively closes out a set that has been split about as evenly as one can be, 2-2, with both teams playing like the division is still theirs to win.
The shape of this race hasn't moved much in a month — Atlanta on top, Philadelphia chasing, and the two of them spending as much time playing each other as anyone else on the schedule. That alone should make Saturday, September 12, appointment viewing in Atlanta at 7:15 PM ET, whoever ends up on the mound.
