Philadelphia's final week is why this matters. In the 4 losses before the 7-3 win over Tampa Bay, the Phillies scored 3 runs total: 1, 1, 0 and 1. That covers 2 games against the Brewers and 2 against the Rays, all at home. The 7-run finale was the first time in a week the lineup looked like itself, and they're taking it on the road without their table-setter.
Atlanta didn't exactly roar into October either. The Braves went 2-3 over their last 5 and dropped 2 of 3 in Miami. Some of that was on purpose. Weiss used the final weekend to give his pitchers appearances and rest rather than chase wins: Ray Kerr opened one game and Holmes piggybacked behind him. "We're trying to find a sweet spot between being rested and being ready to go," Weiss said. So the Braves' recent results tell you less than usual, and their fresh relievers tell you more.
The Braves have lost a lot of arms too. Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach are both done for the year, Bryce Elder and Reynaldo Lopez are on the 15-day IL, and Hurston Waldrep went on the 60-day. That's why depth past the top 3 starters is the soft spot. JR Ritchie, a converted reliever with a 4.79 ERA, is next in line. In a short series, though, Atlanta may never need to go that deep. Philadelphia's pitching list is thinner on paper: Brad Keller is out after elbow surgery, Caleb Kilian is on the 60-day, and Jonathan Bowlan is day-to-day with a groin strain.
Weather won't be a factor. It should be 85 degrees and clear at Truist Park with barely a 4 mph breeze. Everything else points to a low-scoring afternoon: two staffs lined up for the playoffs, rested bullpens, and a Phillies lineup that spent last week proving it can go 9 innings without scoring. If Philadelphia's bats from the Tampa Bay finale show up, this is a coin-flip rivalry game. If the bats from the 4 games before it show up, it's over by the 7th.