TLDR: One loss from the offseason. The Phillies blew Game 1 in the eighth at Truist Park, and now it comes down to their ace against a Braves team that wants to end this on Wednesday afternoon.
Philadelphia faces elimination after Austin Riley's 8th-inning homer off Jhoan Duran gave Atlanta Game 1 of the best-of-3 Wild Card Series. Cristopher Sánchez's ground-ball game fits well against the Braves' power lineup, but Tyler Mahle has shut down this Phillies lineup twice in September, and Philadelphia has almost no bullpen depth behind Duran. The Phillies are narrow favorites largely because of who's starting for them, even though their offense hasn't shown much lately.
Cristopher Sánchez (18-7, 2.91) gets the ball at 2:00 PM ET, and he is the best thing Philadelphia has going. He finished 2nd in the NL in strikeouts with 231 and 2nd in innings with 207, and the Phillies went 23-10 in his starts. Across from him is Tyler Mahle (7-10, 3.99), who is making his playoff debut. Mahle's season line undersells him. He had a 1.99 ERA over 9 starts after Atlanta picked him up from the Giants at the deadline, although the Reds got him for 5 earned runs in 5 innings last time out.
Cristopher Sánchez
(18-7)·2.91 ERA
Sep 25 vs Rays
L
7.0IP
2ER
10K
1BB
100P
09/30 Lineup
Tyler Mahle
(7-10)·3.99 ERA
Sep 24 vs Reds
ND
5.0IP
5ER
4K
2BB
91P
09/30 Lineup
Game 1 is why this one feels urgent. The Braves wasted a Chris Sale gem, then won it anyway when Austin Riley hit a 3-run homer off Jhoan Duran in the 8th, with Duran working a second inning after throwing 12 pitches in the 7th. That exposes Philadelphia's bigger problem: Duran is the only reliever they fully trust late. Arraez is off the Wild Card roster with his ankle, so the lineup had Derek Hill, Bryan De La Cruz and Edmundo Sosa in the 5 through 8 spots on Tuesday. Atlanta had Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies and Riley in the same stretch. Even so, the board has the Phillies a slight favorite, which tells you how much stock the market puts in Sánchez.
History is against Philadelphia. In the best-of-3 Wild Card era, teams that win the opener have gone on to take the series 21 of 24 times. What Sánchez gives them is a style that fits this lineup. Atlanta hits for power, and he got grounders on 58% of balls in play this season. The Braves have seen him twice and scored 3 earned runs in 12 innings. Philadelphia still dropped both of those starts.
Scoring is the real issue for the Phillies. Over their last 5 games they put up 1, 0, 1, 7 and 3 runs, and Mahle already shut them down twice in September: 1 earned run in 13 innings with 19 groundouts. With Sánchez also getting ground balls against Atlanta, this looks like a game decided by 1 swing. It'll be 84 degrees and clear with barely any wind, so the weather shouldn't help or hurt the hitters.
Injuries have thinned both staffs. Atlanta has been without Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach for weeks, and Reynaldo Lopez is on the IL with a shoulder issue. That's why Mahle, a deadline pickup, is starting a playoff game. The Phillies' bullpen has problems beyond Duran. Jonathan Bowlan hasn't pitched in 2 weeks because of a groin strain, and Andrew Painter has only worked in bulk relief. If Sánchez goes deep, Philadelphia plays a Game 3. If he doesn't, they have to win the late innings with arms they haven't trusted all year.
NL Wild Card Game 2: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves — Phillies Hand the Ball to Sánchez With the Season on the Line | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush
