TLDR: After 162 games and 2 more against each other, the Phillies and Braves are dead even, and it comes down to 9 innings at Truist Park. The winner gets the Dodgers. The loser goes home.
The Phillies and Braves split the first 2 games of the NL Wild Card Series, so Game 3 at Truist Park decides who plays the Dodgers. Philadelphia can use Nola and Wheeler in the same game, while an injury-thinned Atlanta staff plans a lefty opener into Grant Holmes to handle Schwarber and Harper. Both lineups are dealing with injuries, Arraez and Sosa for Philadelphia and Acuña's hitless series for Atlanta, and the first 2 games were close, so this one projects to be decided late.
Neither club has named a starter, so the pitcher card says TBD. Both managers will use whoever they can. MLB.com's preview lists Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler as Philadelphia's main options, and NBC Sports says Wheeler on short rest wouldn't be a surprise. If he doesn't start, he's expected to come out of the bullpen. Atlanta is leaning toward a bullpen game: a lefty opener, possibly Ray Kerr, Brent Suter or Dylan Lee, to get through Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper once, then Grant Holmes for the bulk innings. None of that is official until the lineup cards go in.
The Braves are building a whole plan around 2 Phillies hitters, and that's not paranoia. Schwarber and Harper hit back-to-back homers off Lee in the 8th inning of Game 2 to tie it. Alec Bohm then homered off Didier Fuentes with 2 outs in the 10th, and the Phillies won 4-3. Andrew Painter made his postseason debut and threw 3 scoreless innings in relief to hold it, which also means he probably isn't available for much tonight. On the Atlanta side, Ronald Acuña Jr. still doesn't have a hit in the series. He has drawn 2 walks, been hit by a pitch once and stolen 2 bases, so he's getting on base without hitting the ball hard. The Phillies come in as a slight road favorite, which tells you how close the books think this is.
Atlanta finished 6 games better over the regular season, 94-68 against 88-74, and won Game 1 5-3. That stopped mattering when Bohm's homer cleared the fence. Both clubs went 2-3 over their last 5. The Phillies lost 2 of 3 to the Rays before the series started, and the Braves lost 2 of 3 in Miami. Neither team came into October hot, and in a 1-game playoff that matters less than who's available to pitch.
Philadelphia's lineup is thinner than it was in September. Interim manager Don Mattingly left Luis Arraez (ankle) off the Wild Card roster, and Edmundo Sosa came out of Game 2 after aggravating his left groin, so left field is a question. Atlanta's starting rotation is mostly on the injured list: Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder and Martin Perez are all out. That's how a 94-win team ends up starting a bullpen game with its season on the line. Tyler Mahle hurt his abdomen warming up for Game 2 and still threw 7 innings of 1-run ball, but he won't pitch again in this series.
First pitch is 8:00 PM ET. It's forecast to be 80 degrees and clear with almost no wind, so the weather won't help either side. The game probably comes down to whether Atlanta's lefties get Schwarber and Harper out, and to how many innings Wheeler and Nola can cover. Game 2 was tied going into the 8th and needed extra innings, so expect another close one.
