First pitch is 6:40 PM CT at American Family Field, and the pitching matchup is so lopsided it's almost unfair to print on a card. Painter (1-7, 6.21) gets the ball for Philly opposite Misiorowski (7-2, 1.50), who hasn't allowed an earned run in the building since people stopped checking the calendar.
Misiorowski's June has tipped into historical territory. Reports out of Milwaukee have him at a 0.20 ERA over his last 7 starts — 1 earned run in 45.1 innings — which is the lowest mark by any MLB pitcher over a 7-start span since Bob Gibson in 1968. His last time out he punched out 8 Rockies over 7 shutout innings on 98 pitches. Painter's last outing was the photo negative: 4.2 innings, 6 earned runs, 8 hits, an L stamped on it by the White Sox.
The Phillies have actually been playing fine — 3-2 over their last 5, took the series in Toronto, scored 7 and 9 in two of their last three wins. But the bats are walking into a different problem here. Misiorowski has been pitching like the rotation's lottery ticket finally hit, and Philadelphia's lineup is missing Johan Rojas for the year after a UCL tear, with Adolis Garcia and Carson DeMartini both day-to-day.
- Day-To-DayAdolis Garcia RF — Garcia went 2-for-4 with a solo home run and a second run scored in Friday's 8-6 win over the White Sox.
- Day-To-DayAndrew Walling RP
- Day-To-DayCarson DeMartini SS
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert RP — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary C — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus RP — Backhus (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday.
- OutJohan Rojas CF — Rojas (suspension) will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a right elbow UCL tear that will require an internal brace procedure.
- Day-To-DayTrevor Megill RP — Megill wasn't available to pitch in Monday's game against the Athletics due to oblique tightness, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge LF — Lockridge (knee) will attempt to run at 85-to-90 percent intensity Monday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILJared Koenig RP — Koenig (elbow) transferred his rehab assignment to Triple-A Nashville on Tuesday and could be activated from the injured list in about a week, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 15-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff SP — Woodruff (shoulder) allowed three runs on five hits and two walks over 3.2 innings in his first rehab start with the Brewers' Arizona Complex League affiliate Tuesday.
- 15-Day-ILDL Hall RP — The Brewers expect Hall to return from his left pec strain in late July, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 15-Day-ILCarlos Rodriguez RP — The Brewers placed Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right shoulder impingement, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILLogan Henderson SP — Henderson received an injection in his back Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILRob Zastryzny RP — The Brewers reinstated Zastrzyny (shoulder/ribs) from the 60-day injured list Sunday.
Milwaukee's own injury sheet is a horror show — Woodruff still rehabbing, Quinn Priester on the 60-day, Trevor Megill scratched Monday with oblique tightness, DL Hall not back until late July — but at 41-25 they've made it look like nothing. They've dropped 2 in a row in Oakland, so call it a soft spot if you squint, but the soft spot is starting Misiorowski. Hard to call that a soft spot.
Pinnacle has the Brewers at -249, implying a 69% win probability, and that feels like the market accurately pricing 'ace vs. struggling rookie' rather than overreacting. Phillies need length from Painter, a couple of early runs to flip the bullpen math, and probably a Misiorowski night where the command isn't quite there. Possible. Just not the way to bet.