Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers

By Bush StaffUpdated 71d ago·2 min read
Philadelphia PhilliesPHI(37-31)
Milwaukee BrewersMIL(41-25)
06
FINAL
123456789RHE
PHI
000000000011
MIL
11003100680

First pitch is 6:40 PM CT at American Family Field, and the pitching matchup is so lopsided it's almost unfair to print on a card. Painter (1-7, 6.21) gets the ball for Philly opposite Misiorowski (7-2, 1.50), who hasn't allowed an earned run in the building since people stopped checking the calendar.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Phillies(37-31)
WLWWL
0
Brewers(41-25)
LLWWW
6
Best BetBrewers -258
Pregame

Milwaukee at -249 is steep, but you're paying for Misiorowski in form no one in the sport has matched since Gibson. Painter is 1-7 with a 6.21 ERA and has averaged under 5 innings a start, which means the Phillies' overworked pen likely has to navigate the middle innings against an offense that just hung 15 on the A's. Lay it.

Misiorowski's June has tipped into historical territory. Reports out of Milwaukee have him at a 0.20 ERA over his last 7 starts — 1 earned run in 45.1 innings — which is the lowest mark by any MLB pitcher over a 7-start span since Bob Gibson in 1968. His last time out he punched out 8 Rockies over 7 shutout innings on 98 pitches. Painter's last outing was the photo negative: 4.2 innings, 6 earned runs, 8 hits, an L stamped on it by the White Sox.

Philadelphia Phillies
Tanner Banks
(0-4)·5.86 ERA
06/12 Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
Jacob Misiorowski
(8-3)·1.45 ERA
Jun 6 @ Rockies
W
7.0IP
0ER
8K
3BB
98P
06/12 Lineup
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(37-31)
Jun 10W@ Blue Jays7-4
Jun 9L@ Blue Jays2-3
Jun 8W@ Blue Jays5-2
Jun 7Wvs White Sox9-5
Jun 6Lvs White Sox3-6
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(41-25)
Jun 11L@ Athletics3-4
Jun 10L@ Athletics5-7
Jun 9W@ Athletics15-14
Jun 7W@ Rockies12-4
Jun 7W@ Rockies7-1

The Phillies have actually been playing fine — 3-2 over their last 5, took the series in Toronto, scored 7 and 9 in two of their last three wins. But the bats are walking into a different problem here. Misiorowski has been pitching like the rotation's lottery ticket finally hit, and Philadelphia's lineup is missing Johan Rojas for the year after a UCL tear, with Adolis Garcia and Carson DeMartini both day-to-day.

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(7)
  • Day-To-DayAdolis Garcia (RF)Garcia went 2-for-4 with a solo home run and a second run scored in Friday's 8-6 win over the White Sox.06/11
  • Day-To-DayAndrew Walling (RP)
  • Day-To-DayCarson DeMartini (SS)
  • Day-To-DayDaniel Robert (RP)Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary (C)Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus (RP)Backhus (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday.06/09
  • OutJohan Rojas (CF)Rojas (suspension) will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a right elbow UCL tear that will require an internal brace procedure.06/10
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
(11)
  • Day-To-DayTrevor Megill (RP)Megill wasn't available to pitch in Monday's game against the Athletics due to oblique tightness, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/10
  • 10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge (LF)Lockridge (knee) will attempt to run at 85-to-90 percent intensity Monday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.06/01
  • 15-Day-ILJared Koenig (RP)Koenig (elbow) transferred his rehab assignment to Triple-A Nashville on Tuesday and could be activated from the injured list in about a week, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/10
  • 15-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff (SP)Woodruff (shoulder) allowed three runs on five hits and two walks over 3.2 innings in his first rehab start with the Brewers' Arizona Complex League affiliate Tuesday.06/10
  • 15-Day-ILDL Hall (RP)The Brewers expect Hall to return from his left pec strain in late July, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.06/09
  • 15-Day-ILCarlos Rodriguez (RP)The Brewers placed Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right shoulder impingement, MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 15-Day-ILLogan Henderson (SP)Henderson received an injection in his back Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.06/03
  • 15-Day-ILRob Zastryzny (RP)The Brewers reinstated Zastrzyny (shoulder/ribs) from the 60-day injured list Sunday.06/03
  • 60-Day-ILQuinn Priester (SP)The Brewers returned Priester (shoulder) from his rehab assignment at the Arizona Complex League on Thursday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.06/11
  • 60-Day-ILBrian Fitzpatrick (RP)Fitzpatrick (elbow) has been diagnosed with a left UCL strain and will get a second opinion to determine if he needs Tommy John surgery, MLB.com reports.06/09
  • 60-Day-ILAngel Zerpa (RP)The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.05/31

Milwaukee's own injury sheet is a horror show — Woodruff still rehabbing, Quinn Priester on the 60-day, Trevor Megill scratched Monday with oblique tightness, DL Hall not back until late July — but at 41-25 they've made it look like nothing. They've dropped 2 in a row in Oakland, so call it a soft spot if you squint, but the soft spot is starting Misiorowski. Hard to call that a soft spot.

Pinnacle has the Brewers at -249, implying a 69% win probability, and that feels like the market accurately pricing 'ace vs. struggling rookie' rather than overreacting. Phillies need length from Painter, a couple of early runs to flip the bullpen math, and probably a Misiorowski night where the command isn't quite there. Possible. Just not the way to bet.

MLBPhiladelphia PhilliesMilwaukee BrewersPolymarketKalshiTanner BanksJacob Misiorowski