The Phillies roll into San Diego at 27-27 and stuck in neutral, and Tuesday's pitching matchup is exactly the kind of mismatch that has Philly fans reaching for the antacids. Aaron Nola has been a $172 million problem all season, and Randy Vásquez has quietly turned into one of the most dependable arms in the NL West.
Nola's last time out he got tagged for 4 runs in 5 innings against the Reds in a 9-4 loss, and the underlying numbers are even uglier than the 6.04 ERA suggests. Strikeouts down, walks up, hard contact everywhere. The reporting out of Philly is that Don Mattingly's group is genuinely wrestling with what to do with him if the slide continues. Petco is at least a forgiving place to try and right the ship — if there's a park to find your fastball in, this is it.
Vásquez, meanwhile, is the guy nobody outside San Diego is talking about and probably should be. He's 5-2 with a 2.96 ERA, just punched out a clean 6-inning, zero-run, zero-walk outing against Seattle, and his command jump (2.32 BB/9) has stabilized a rotation that's been gutted by injuries. With Darvish, Musgrove, Pivetta, Marquez and Waldron all on the shelf, the Padres need every inning he gives them.
- Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony 1B — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
- Day-To-DayRene Pinto C — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert RP — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold 3B — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary C — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus RP — Backhus (elbow) played catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILZach Pop RP — Pop (calf) began a rehab assignment Saturday, throwing a clean inning for Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
- suspensionJohan Rojas CF — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
- Day-To-DayBlake Hunt C — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 7-day ilJake Cronenworth 2B — The Padres placed Cronenworth on the 7-day concussion injured list Tuesday, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano C — Campusano (toe) has progressed to swinging in the batting cage and catching off a pitching machine, per MLB.com.
- 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron SP — Waldron (forearm) could take on a bullpen role when he returns from the 15-day injured list, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez SP — Marquez (forearm) has progressed to throwing off a mound, per MLB.com.
- 15-Day-ILNick Pivetta SP — Padres manager Craig Stammen told reporters Wednesday that Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- 60-Day-ILJhony Brito RP — Brito (forearm) had his minor-league rehab statement moved from the Arizona Complex League to Double-A San Antonio on Sunday, per MLB.com.
- 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove SP — The Padres transferred Musgrove (elbow) to the 60-day injured list on Thursday.
The Padres' 31-22 record looks better than how they've actually been playing — they're 2-3 over their last 5 and the offense around Tatis and Machado has gone quiet in stretches. The Phillies have a real lineup with Schwarber and Harper in the middle of it, so this isn't a layup for San Diego even with the pitching edge.
The market sees it the way you'd expect: Padres favored, total sitting at 7-7.5, and the public is heavy on San Diego on the moneyline but actually leaning Phillies on the run line. EV is negative across the board, which is a polite way of saying there's no free money in this one. If you're betting it, you're betting Nola finding something he hasn't shown in two seasons — or you're trusting the Padres' bullpen to lock down whatever Vásquez hands them.