Nola's last time out he got tagged for 4 runs in 5 innings against the Reds in a 9-4 loss, and the underlying numbers are even uglier than the 6.04 ERA suggests. Strikeouts down, walks up, hard contact everywhere. The reporting out of Philly is that Don Mattingly's group is genuinely wrestling with what to do with him if the slide continues. Petco is at least a forgiving place to try and right the ship — if there's a park to find your fastball in, this is it.
Vásquez, meanwhile, is the guy nobody outside San Diego is talking about and probably should be. He's 5-2 with a 2.96 ERA, just punched out a clean 6-inning, zero-run, zero-walk outing against Seattle, and his command jump (2.32 BB/9) has stabilized a rotation that's been gutted by injuries. With Darvish, Musgrove, Pivetta, Marquez and Waldron all on the shelf, the Padres need every inning he gives them.
- Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony (1B) — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayRene Pinto (C) — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert (RP) — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold (3B) — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.05/08
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary (C) — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus (RP) — Backhus (elbow) played catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports.05/14
- 15-Day-ILZach Pop (RP) — Pop (calf) began a rehab assignment Saturday, throwing a clean inning for Triple-A Lehigh Valley.05/11
- suspensionJohan Rojas (CF) — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILMax Lazar (RP) — Lazar (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Jersey Shore on Thursday.05/08
- Day-To-DayBlake Hunt (C) — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.05/08
- 7-day ilJake Cronenworth (2B) — The Padres placed Cronenworth on the 7-day concussion injured list Tuesday, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILLuis Campusano (C) — Campusano (toe) has progressed to swinging in the batting cage and catching off a pitching machine, per MLB.com.05/22
- 15-Day-ILMatt Waldron (SP) — Waldron (forearm) could take on a bullpen role when he returns from the 15-day injured list, MLB.com reports.05/22
- 15-Day-ILGerman Marquez (SP) — Marquez (forearm) has progressed to throwing off a mound, per MLB.com.05/22
- 15-Day-ILNick Pivetta (SP) — Padres manager Craig Stammen told reporters Wednesday that Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.05/08
- OutYu Darvish (SP) — Darvish (elbow) revealed Tuesday in a social media post that he has resumed playing catch.05/12
- 60-Day-ILJhony Brito (RP) — Brito (forearm) had his minor-league rehab statement moved from the Arizona Complex League to Double-A San Antonio on Sunday, per MLB.com.05/18
- 60-Day-ILJoe Musgrove (SP) — The Padres transferred Musgrove (elbow) to the 60-day injured list on Thursday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBryan Hoeing (RP) — The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
The Padres' 31-22 record looks better than how they've actually been playing — they're 2-3 over their last 5 and the offense around Tatis and Machado has gone quiet in stretches. The Phillies have a real lineup with Schwarber and Harper in the middle of it, so this isn't a layup for San Diego even with the pitching edge.
The market sees it the way you'd expect: Padres favored, total sitting at 7-7.5, and the public is heavy on San Diego on the moneyline but actually leaning Phillies on the run line. EV is negative across the board, which is a polite way of saying there's no free money in this one. If you're betting it, you're betting Nola finding something he hasn't shown in two seasons — or you're trusting the Padres' bullpen to lock down whatever Vásquez hands them.