Philadelphia rolls into Pittsburgh having taken 13 of their last 18, including a series win at Fenway, and they're still scuffling at 21-23. That tells you all you need to know about the first five weeks. The good news: they've found a gear. The bad news: Aaron Nola is making the start.
Nola's 5.14 ERA is the headline, but the shape of it is worse. He'd dropped 3 of his prior 4 outings before grinding out 6 scoreless against the Marlins last time up. Manager Don Mattingly leaned on extra rest to try to reset him, and the Marlins start was the first sign that maybe it took. One outing doesn't fix a spring, though, and PNC is not exactly a sympathetic environment when the fastball command wanders.
Braxton Ashcraft is the other side of this coin. The 26-year-old is in his first full season as a starter and is sitting on a 2.77 ERA with a 51:14 K:BB through 48.2 innings. He's allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 7 of his 8 starts — second-best mark in the majors, behind only Clay Holmes. The Pirates have quietly stacked one of the better young rotations in the league, and Ashcraft is a big reason they're 24-20 and looking up at no one in the Central they can't catch.
The market agrees the Pirates have the edge — Pittsburgh sits at -133 with a fair win probability around 55.7%, and the total is parked at 8. That feels about right for an Ashcraft start against a Phillies lineup that's been without Trea Turner for multiple games. If Turner's still out of the lineup Friday, the under gets even more interesting.
- Day-To-DayTrea Turner SS — Turner is not in the lineup for Wednesday's contest versus the Red Sox.
- Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony 1B — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
- Day-To-DayRene Pinto C — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert RP — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold 3B — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary C — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus RP — Backhus (elbow) played catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILZach Pop RP — Pop (calf) began a rehab assignment Saturday, throwing a clean inning for Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo SP — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda RP — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger RP — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayDominic Fletcher RF — Fletcher (shoulder) had his rehab assignment transferred to Triple-A Charlotte on Thursday and went 2-for-7 with a solo home run and a walk in his first two rehab games with the club.
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan SP — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart C — Manager Don Kelly said Bart, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rockies, is "banged up," Chris Halicke of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
- 10-Day-ILJake Mangum LF — The Pirates placed Mangum on the 10-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain, retroactive to Wednesday.
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski RP — The Pirates placed Devenski on the 15-day injured list Thursday due to an illness.
Pittsburgh's injury list is the bigger story long-term — Jared Jones is rehabbing his way back, Joey Bart is banged up, and Mike Clevinger is looking at roughly 6 weeks with an MCL sprain. But for one night, with Ashcraft on the mound and Nola still trying to find himself, the Bucs are the side you'd rather be holding. Take the home dog price if you like Philly's bats; otherwise, Pittsburgh is the play and the under is the lean.