This is the kind of matchup that makes you set a midday alarm. Skenes is sitting on a 1.98 ERA and just took a no-hitter into the 7th inning in each of his last 2 starts. Wheeler, in his 5th outing back from thoracic outlet surgery, has been every bit as good — 2.55 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and zero rust to speak of.
The Phillies come in at 23-23 but have won 4 of their last 5. The Pirates sit a game over .500 at 24-22 and have dropped 2 in a row, so the rubber match in this set carries actual stakes for a Pittsburgh team that doesn't usually get this kind of national TV spotlight outside of a Skenes start.
The Skenes line right now is genuinely absurd: he hasn't issued a walk in 5 straight outings. His last time out, 8 scoreless against Colorado on 98 pitches with 10 strikeouts and a no-hit bid into the 7th. Wheeler, meanwhile, hasn't looked like a guy rebuilding anything. He's punched up a 2-0 record across his return starts and the Phillies have basically slotted him right back in as the staff ace.
The market reflects all of it. DK has the Pirates at +141 as home dogs and the total dropped to 8.5 there while Pinnacle hangs it at 7 — that's a full run and a half of disagreement, which tells you the sharper book expects the aces to do ace things. Public money is leaning over and chasing the Phillies on the moneyline; neither side prices out as a great EV play.
- Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony 1B — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
- Day-To-DayRene Pinto C — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert RP — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold 3B — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary C — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus RP — Backhus (elbow) played catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILZach Pop RP — Pop (calf) began a rehab assignment Saturday, throwing a clean inning for Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
- suspensionJohan Rojas CF — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
- Day-To-DayRyan O'Hearn RF — O'Hearn was removed from Saturday's game against the Phillies due to right quad discomfort.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo SP — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda RP — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger RP — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan SP — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart C — Manager Don Kelly said Bart, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rockies, is "banged up," Chris Halicke of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
- 10-Day-ILJake Mangum LF — The Pirates placed Mangum on the 10-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain, retroactive to Wednesday.
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski RP — The Pirates placed Devenski on the 15-day injured list Thursday due to an illness.
One thing to watch: Ryan O'Hearn exited Saturday's game with right quad discomfort, so the Pirates lineup behind Skenes could be a little lighter than it was 24 hours ago. They can't afford to lose bats against Wheeler — runs are going to be at a premium, and whichever bullpen gets the ball first is probably the one that loses.