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Predictions

Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds

By Bush StaffUpdated 45d ago·2 min read
Philadelphia PhilliesPHI(50-41)
Cincinnati RedsCIN(41-48)
4—1
FINAL
123456789RHE
PHI
003000010480
CIN
000000100150

Wheeler (8-1, 2.22 ERA) draws Andrew Abbott (5-4, 3.95) for a 7:10 PM ET series opener, and it's the kind of pitching mismatch on paper that Philadelphia needed after getting run out of Kauffman Stadium. Abbott has quietly turned his season around since a rough April, but he still walked 5 in his last start against Milwaukee — control that can get punished against a lineup that's capable of stacking innings in a hurry.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Phillies(50-41)
LLWLW
4
Reds(41-48)
WLLWL
1
Best BetPhillies -176
Postgame

Wheeler and the offense delivered exactly as drawn up — Phillies win 4-1, moneyline pick cashes.

Pregame

We backed the Phillies at -163 on the moneyline before first pitch, leaning on Wheeler's dominance and Cincinnati's shaky center-field depth. Abbott's control issues in his last outing made him a live target, and Philadelphia's lineup had more than enough juice to punish a mistake or two.

The bigger question for Philadelphia wasn't the guy on the mound, it was everybody else. Trea Turner has been error-prone of late, and the offense went ice-cold in back-to-back Kansas City blowout losses before this one. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is trying to build off a walk-off win over Baltimore and an Elly De La Cruz hot streak, even while sitting in last place in a stacked NL Central.

Philadelphia Phillies
Zack Wheeler
(10-1)·2.13 ERA
Jul 1 vs Pirates
ND
4.2IP
4ER
10K
1BB
104P
07/07 Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Abbott
(5-6)·3.89 ERA
Jul 1 @ Brewers
ND
5.0IP
2ER
3K
5BB
96P
07/07 Lineup

None of that history mattered much once Wheeler took the ball. He's been the steadiest arm in either rotation all year, and steady is exactly what a banged-up Phillies club needed heading into Cincinnati.

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(50-41)
Jul 6L@ Royals1-15
Jul 5L@ Royals2-5
Jul 5W@ Royals6-1
Jul 2Lvs Pirates1-6
Jul 1Wvs Pirates10-6
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(41-48)
Jul 5Wvs Orioles3-2
Jul 4Lvs Orioles5-8
Jul 3Lvs Orioles0-3
Jul 2W@ Brewers7-2
Jul 2L@ Brewers2-4

Philadelphia's last 5 games told two different stories — a blowout win over Pittsburgh, a lopsided loss to the same Pirates, then the Kansas City rollercoaster that ended in a 15-1 disaster. Cincinnati's stretch was scrappier: three losses sandwiched around two wins, the kind of grinding baseball that's kept the Reds in games without actually padding the win column.

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(3)
  • 15-Day-ILBrad Keller (RP) — The Phillies plan to reinstate Keller (forearm) from the 15-day injured list Wednesday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.07/07
  • 60-Day-ILJohan Rojas (CF) — Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILAdolis Garcia (RF) — The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/24
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
(6)
  • 10-Day-ILBlake Dunn (CF) — Dunn (elbow) hoped to resume baseball activity Saturday but was not ready, MLB.com reports.07/05
  • 10-Day-ILDane Myers (CF) — Myers received an injection in the AC joint of his left shoulder Saturday, MLB.com reports.07/05
  • 10-Day-ILKe'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Hayes (back) will stick with High-A Dayton this weekend and then have his rehab moved to Triple-A Louisville next week, MLB.com reports.07/04
  • 15-Day-ILTony Santillan (RP) — Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/26
  • 60-Day-ILGraham Ashcraft (RP) — Ashcraft is expected to resume throwing soon after receiving good news Tuesday regarding the imaging on his injured right elbow UCL, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/30
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his rehab program has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.06/28

Cincinnati's injury list is the longer and uglier of the two — Blake Dunn and Dane Myers both out in center field, Ke'Bryan Hayes still working his way back at Triple-A, and a pair of arms (Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson) on the 60-day. Philadelphia's issues are more top-line: Adolis Garcia and Johan Rojas are both done for extended stretches after surgery, though Brad Keller's return from the bullpen is imminent.

In the end it played out about as scripted as the pitching matchup suggested. A 3-run third put Philadelphia in control, Cincinnati never found a real answer against Wheeler, and a lone 7th-inning run was as close as the Reds got. The Phillies leave Cincinnati with a much-needed correction after that Kansas City nightmare, while the Reds' last-place hole in the NL Central gets a little deeper.

Sources

MLBPhiladelphia PhilliesCincinnati RedsPolymarketKalshiZack WheelerAndrew Abbott