First pitch is 7:10 PM CT at Daikin Park, and Pinnacle has it pegged as a coin flip: Astros -110, Pirates -100, total 8.5. The Pirates (32-28) have won 3 in a row over the Twins and are quietly hanging around in the NL Central. The Astros (27-34) are still trying to dig out of a hole that injuries keep making deeper.
On paper, the starters favor Houston. Mike Burrows just threw 7 strong against the Rangers (2 ER, 6 K) for his last win, while Bubba Chandler is 0-5 with a 5.91 ERA over his last 7 starts and gave up 4 in 5 against the Cubs his last time out. The catch with Burrows: he has surrendered 13 home runs in 11 starts, tied for the most in the American League. Crawford Boxes are right there waiting.
The Pirates do have a card to play here. Chandler has been a different pitcher on the road this year — opponents are hitting .198 against him away from PNC and he's averaging 10 K/9 in road starts. The strikeouts are real even when the bottom-line ERA isn't. Houston's lineup, with Altuve still on the IL and Correa lost for the season, is not exactly the test that breaks that trend.
Pittsburgh comes in genuinely hot — 9-3 over Minnesota on Sunday, and back-to-back slugfests before that (10-9, 6-5). Houston went 1-2 against the Brewers at home over the weekend and got shut out 2-0 in the finale. The Astros are 27-34 and the AL West is slipping. A series loss to Pittsburgh at home is the kind of thing that turns up the heat on Joe Espada in a hurry.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo SP — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda RP — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger RP — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan SP — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 10-Day-ILKonnor Griffin SS — The Pirates placed Griffin on the 10-day injured list Sunday due to a flexor strain in his right elbow.
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart C — Bart (foot) has been cleared to resume weight room activity and play light catch, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski RP — Devenski (illness) is expected to resume throwing bullpen sessions during the upcoming week, MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayBraden Shewmake SS — Shewmake (groin) is not in the lineup for Sunday's game against the Brewers, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
- Day-To-DayWalker Janek C — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.
- 10-Day-ILJose Altuve 2B — Altuve (oblique) took BP, ran the bases and fielded grounders Saturday, and he's slated to face live pitching in the coming days, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILJoey Loperfido LF — Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) will pause his rehab assignment until Wednesday after fouling a ball off his foot during Sunday's game with Double-A Corpus Christie, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILYainer Diaz C — Astros general manager Dana Brown said Sunday that Diaz (oblique) is expected to begin a rehab assignment during the first week of June, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Correa SS — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr. SP — McCullers was scratched from his scheduled start against the Twins on Tuesday due to shoulder inflammation, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
- 15-Day-ILBennett Sousa RP — The Astros placed Sousa on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, retroactive to Wednesday, Julia Morales of Space City Home Network reports.
The injury sheet here is brutal for Houston: Correa, Altuve, Hunter Brown, Josh Hader, Cristian Javier, Yainer Diaz, Lance McCullers Jr. — the spine of a contender, all unavailable. Pittsburgh isn't whole either with Konnor Griffin on the 10-day with a flexor strain and Joey Bart still working back from a foot issue, but compared to Houston's MASH unit they're walking in healthy.
The market basically calls this a pick'em and that feels right. Take the under 8.5 if you trust two flawed-but-functional starters going against banged-up lineups. Take the Pirates if you think Chandler's road numbers are the real ones. Take the Astros if you just can't see Houston losing a series opener at home to Pittsburgh. Hard to argue with any of it.