The records say this is closer than it feels. The Pirates are 26-25 and the Jays are 24-27, but Toronto is the team that has dropped into rotation triage. Berrios just had Tommy John surgery, Scherzer is still throwing 20-pitch bullpens, Bieber is heading to the complex league for a rehab assignment, and Bowden Francis is on the 60-day. That is most of an Opening Day rotation, gone.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo (SP) — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda (RP) — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger (RP) — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan (SP) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILRyan O'Hearn (RF) — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that O'Hearn's right quadriceps strain is considered "moderate" and will likely keep him on the injured list for around four weeks, Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com reports.05/17
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart (C) — Manager Don Kelly said Bart, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rockies, is "banged up," Chris Halicke of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — Devenski (illness) was cleared to resume all baseball activities last week and began throwing bullpen sessions May 13, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/21
- 60-Day-ILJared Jones (SP) — Jones (elbow) will head to Triple-A Indianapolis on Saturday to make the fifth start of his rehab assignment, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/21
- Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart (C) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayChay Yeager (RP) — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayCJ Stubbs (C) — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.05/08
- Day-To-DayJaven Coleman (P) — no05/08
- 10-Day-ILNathan Lukes (RF) — Lukes (hamstring) will travel to Toronto on Monday to determine whether he will be activated off the 10-day injured list, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/22
- 10-Day-ILAlejandro Kirk (C) — Kirk has not been cleared to take full batting practice yet because he still feels a bit of soreness in his surgically repaired left thumb while hitting, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.05/19
- 10-Day-ILAddison Barger (RF) — Barger (elbow) was in Toronto for a follow-up exam Monday, seeking the green light to start hitting and throwing Tuesday, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/19
- 15-Day-ILJose Berrios (SP) — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.05/20
- 15-Day-ILTommy Nance (RP) — Manager John Schneider said Tuesday that the outlook for Nance's forearm injury is a "best case" scenario, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.05/19
- 15-Day-ILJoe Mantiply (RP) — The Blue Jays placed Mantiply on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to May 18, due to left knee inflammation.05/19
- 15-Day-ILMax Scherzer (SP) — Scherzer (forearm/thumb/ankle) threw a 20-pitch bullpen session Monday, Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com reports.05/18
- developmental listFernando Perez (P)
- 15-Day-ILLazaro Estrada (RP) — The Blue Jays placed Estrada on the MLB 15-day injured list April 5 with a right shoulder impingement, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILYimi Garcia (RP) — Manager John Schneider said Garcia (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/22
- 60-Day-ILShane Bieber (SP) — Bieber (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment at the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Monday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/22
- 60-Day-ILAnthony Santander (RF) — Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCody Ponce (SP) — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBowden Francis (SP) — The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
Corbin himself has been the surprise — a 3.72 ERA across his first four Toronto outings with a 16:6 strikeout-to-walk. The catch is that he has not finished the 6th in any of his 7 starts, which means a Toronto bullpen missing Yimi Garcia, Tommy Nance, and Joe Mantiply is going to be asked to cover the back half of a game against a real lineup. That is where Pittsburgh has a shot to break this open even if Corbin keeps his end.
Pittsburgh is not exactly whole either. Ryan O'Hearn is parked with a moderate quad strain that is going to keep him out for around 4 weeks, Joey Bart is on the 10-day, and Jared Jones is still grinding through a rehab assignment at Triple-A. Skenes covers a lot of sins, but the Pirates lineup is leaner than it should be against a guy throwing strikes.
The market is treating it like the obvious Skenes game it looks like. Pittsburgh sits at -148 on Pinnacle with 64% of the DK moneyline handle on Toronto trying to fade the chalk — classic public-money-on-the-dog setup with a frontline ace on the other side. The total is split between books at 7.5/8, and neither side of any of these markets grades out as a real edge once you bake in the vig.
Bottom line: this is the kind of matinee that exists for ace fans. Skenes is rolling, Toronto's rotation is a fire that Corbin is trying to put out with a garden hose, and the Pirates have a clean path to steal a road series if they bother to scratch out 3 runs.