The Pirates and Blue Jays are basically the same team on paper — 26-26 vs. 25-27, both stuck in baseball's middle floor — but Toronto has spent the first two days of this series looking like the better one, taking Friday 6-2 and Saturday 5-2. Pittsburgh needs a getaway-day win or it flies home swept by a team it absolutely should hang with.
The pitching matchup is the whole ballgame. Cease has been the version of himself Toronto paid $210 million for, going 7 innings in each of his last 3 starts with 26 strikeouts and just 4 earned runs across them. The one wobble was last Tuesday in the Bronx, where he lost the zone in the 4th and gave up a 3-run shot to Ryan McMahon. Otherwise he's been an AL Cy Young name.
Keller has been quietly fine — a 3.86 ERA with 6 quality starts in his first 8 — but his last outing got ugly fast. He retired 12 straight to open against Colorado before a 6-run 5th inning blew the doors off and the Pirates lost 10-4. He doesn't need to outduel Cease so much as he needs to keep this thing within reach of a Pittsburgh lineup that's actually been better than Toronto's (the Pirates entered the series 5th in NL OPS, the Jays last in the AL).
The market doesn't love either side here. Toronto is the chalk at home with Cease, but the EV numbers on every market are negative — Pinnacle and DK aren't even agreeing on the spread, which is the kind of disagreement that usually means stay away rather than smash. Public money on DK is split closer to even on the moneyline than the actual price suggests, with 77% of bets on Pittsburgh but only 73% of the handle.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo SP — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda RP — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger RP — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan SP — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 10-Day-ILRyan O'Hearn RF — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that O'Hearn's right quadriceps strain is considered "moderate" and will likely keep him on the injured list for around four weeks, Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart C — Manager Don Kelly said Bart, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rockies, is "banged up," Chris Halicke of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski RP — Devenski (illness) was cleared to resume all baseball activities last week and began throwing bullpen sessions May 13, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 60-Day-ILJared Jones SP — Jones (elbow) will head to Triple-A Indianapolis on Saturday to make the fifth start of his rehab assignment, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart C — no
- Day-To-DayChay Yeager RP — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- Day-To-DayCJ Stubbs C — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
- Day-To-DayJaven Coleman P — no
- 10-Day-ILAddison Barger RF — The Blue Jays are hopeful Barger (elbow) will resume hitting and throwing Sunday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- 10-Day-ILAlejandro Kirk C — Kirk (thumb) will be evaluated by the Blue Jays training staff this weekend as he prepares to take the next step in his rehab, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- 10-Day-ILNathan Lukes RF — Lukes (hamstring) will travel to Toronto on Monday to determine whether he will be activated off the 10-day injured list, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- 15-Day-ILMax Scherzer SP — Scherzer (forearm) threw around 30 pitches in a bullpen session Friday at Rogers Centre, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Both rosters are also stitched together with tape. Toronto is without Alejandro Kirk, Anthony Santander, Nathan Lukes and Addison Barger from the position-player group, plus Max Scherzer, Jose Berrios (Tommy John) and Shane Bieber from the rotation. Pittsburgh is missing Ryan O'Hearn for roughly another three weeks with a quad strain, plus Joey Bart behind the plate. Whoever blinks first on offense probably loses, and Cease has been the guy in this matchup most likely to make someone blink.