The pitching matchup is the whole ballgame. Cease has been the version of himself Toronto paid $210 million for, going 7 innings in each of his last 3 starts with 26 strikeouts and just 4 earned runs across them. The one wobble was last Tuesday in the Bronx, where he lost the zone in the 4th and gave up a 3-run shot to Ryan McMahon. Otherwise he's been an AL Cy Young name.
Keller has been quietly fine — a 3.86 ERA with 6 quality starts in his first 8 — but his last outing got ugly fast. He retired 12 straight to open against Colorado before a 6-run 5th inning blew the doors off and the Pirates lost 10-4. He doesn't need to outduel Cease so much as he needs to keep this thing within reach of a Pittsburgh lineup that's actually been better than Toronto's (the Pirates entered the series 5th in NL OPS, the Jays last in the AL).
The market doesn't love either side here. Toronto is the chalk at home with Cease, but the EV numbers on every market are negative — Pinnacle and DK aren't even agreeing on the spread, which is the kind of disagreement that usually means stay away rather than smash. Public money on DK is split closer to even on the moneyline than the actual price suggests, with 77% of bets on Pittsburgh but only 73% of the handle.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo (SP) — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda (RP) — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger (RP) — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan (SP) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILRyan O'Hearn (RF) — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that O'Hearn's right quadriceps strain is considered "moderate" and will likely keep him on the injured list for around four weeks, Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com reports.05/17
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart (C) — Manager Don Kelly said Bart, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rockies, is "banged up," Chris Halicke of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/12
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — Devenski (illness) was cleared to resume all baseball activities last week and began throwing bullpen sessions May 13, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/21
- 60-Day-ILJared Jones (SP) — Jones (elbow) will head to Triple-A Indianapolis on Saturday to make the fifth start of his rehab assignment, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/21
- Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart (C) — no05/08
- Day-To-DayChay Yeager (RP) — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayCJ Stubbs (C) — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.05/08
- Day-To-DayJaven Coleman (P) — no05/08
- 10-Day-ILAddison Barger (RF) — The Blue Jays are hopeful Barger (elbow) will resume hitting and throwing Sunday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/23
- 10-Day-ILAlejandro Kirk (C) — Kirk (thumb) will be evaluated by the Blue Jays training staff this weekend as he prepares to take the next step in his rehab, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/23
- 10-Day-ILNathan Lukes (RF) — Lukes (hamstring) will travel to Toronto on Monday to determine whether he will be activated off the 10-day injured list, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/22
- 15-Day-ILMax Scherzer (SP) — Scherzer (forearm) threw around 30 pitches in a bullpen session Friday at Rogers Centre, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/23
- 15-Day-ILJose Berrios (SP) — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.05/20
- 15-Day-ILTommy Nance (RP) — Manager John Schneider said Tuesday that the outlook for Nance's forearm injury is a "best case" scenario, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.05/19
- 15-Day-ILJoe Mantiply (RP) — The Blue Jays placed Mantiply on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to May 18, due to left knee inflammation.05/19
- developmental listFernando Perez (P)
- 15-Day-ILLazaro Estrada (RP) — The Blue Jays placed Estrada on the MLB 15-day injured list April 5 with a right shoulder impingement, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILYimi Garcia (RP) — Manager John Schneider said Garcia (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/22
- 60-Day-ILShane Bieber (SP) — Bieber (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment at the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Monday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/22
- 60-Day-ILAnthony Santander (RF) — Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILCody Ponce (SP) — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILBowden Francis (SP) — The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
Both rosters are also stitched together with tape. Toronto is without Alejandro Kirk, Anthony Santander, Nathan Lukes and Addison Barger from the position-player group, plus Max Scherzer, Jose Berrios (Tommy John) and Shane Bieber from the rotation. Pittsburgh is missing Ryan O'Hearn for roughly another three weeks with a quad strain, plus Joey Bart behind the plate. Whoever blinks first on offense probably loses, and Cease has been the guy in this matchup most likely to make someone blink.