First pitch is 4:10 PM ET at Truist Park, and the matchup card up top tells the whole story before anyone throws a warmup. Braxton Ashcraft (5-2, 2.77) is the Pirates' best version of an ace right now, coming off a career-high 11 strikeouts with zero walks on 80 pitches against the Twins. Strider (3-1, 3.77) gets the ball for Atlanta after taking his first loss of the year in Cincinnati, when the Reds tagged him for 4 runs (3 earned) on 7 hits across 5 innings.
The Strider angle is the one to track. His manager said he was actually throwing about as well as he has since coming back from the oblique strain — the line just didn't show it. Eight punchouts in 5 innings against the Reds is still the swing-and-miss stuff that makes him Strider. The question is whether a Pirates lineup that has scored 27 runs across its last 4 games can keep pace with one of the rotation's most volatile starters.
Atlanta took the opener 6-3 on Friday and has otherwise been business as usual at home — 43-21 isn't an accident even with the absurd injury list. Michael Harris II is back to mashing (3-for-5, 3 RBI in his most recent game) and remains day-to-day in name only. Pittsburgh's last-5 is a perfectly fine 3-2 with the only blemishes coming in slugfests, which is not the script you want against Strider.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo SP — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda RP — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger RP — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan SP — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 10-Day-ILKonnor Griffin SS — The Pirates placed Griffin on the 10-day injured list Sunday due to a flexor strain in his right elbow.
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart C — Bart (foot) has been cleared to resume weight room activity and play light catch, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski RP — Devenski (illness) is expected to resume throwing bullpen sessions during the upcoming week, MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMichael Harris II CF — Harris went 3-for-5 with three RBI in Friday's 8-3 win over the Reds.
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter RP — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
- 10-Day-ILDrake Baldwin C — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Baldwin (oblique) could be activated from the 10-day injured list during the team's June 16-21 homestand, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILKyle Farmer DH — Farmer went 1-for-3 with a double, a run scored and two RBI in Sunday's rout of the Guardians.
- suspensionJurickson Profar LF — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILSean Murphy C — Murphy had the cast on his left hand removed Tuesday and is now wearing a splint to protect his fractured middle finger, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reprots.
- 60-Day-ILHurston Waldrep SP — Waldrep (elbow) allowed no hits and walked two batters over two scoreless innings during a rehab start Monday in the rookie-level Florida Complex League.
- 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach SP — Schwellenbach (elbow) has begun throwing on flat ground, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
The market has this as close as you'll see a Strider home start get: Braves -112, Pirates +101, total sitting at 7.5 with the over juiced to -131. That's the books telling you Ashcraft is the real deal and that Strider isn't quite all the way back yet. Konnor Griffin on the IL hurts the Pirates' top end, and Joey Bart still being out leaves the catching room thin against a Braves staff that will attack the zone.
Pick a side and you can talk yourself into it. Ashcraft's command (zero walks last time out, 5 walks all of May) travels anywhere. Strider at home in a spot where he needs a bounce-back is exactly the kind of start that ends with 10 Ks and a no-decision. Lean Pirates +1.5 if you're feeling brave, lean under if you trust both arms to do what they do.