Bubba Chandler (2-6, 5.05) takes the ball for the Pirates against Bryce Elder (5-3, 2.63) for a 12:35 PM ET first pitch at Truist Park. On paper this is about as lopsided as a starting pitching matchup gets in June, and Pinnacle agrees — Atlanta is sitting at -148 on the moneyline with the total at 8.5.
Elder has quietly been one of the best stories in the NL. He's up to 9 quality starts on the year, tied with Chris Sale and a couple of others for the MLB lead, and he's coming off 6.2 innings of 3-run ball against Toronto on June 2 to lower his ERA to that 2.63 mark. Chandler, meanwhile, is the high-upside arm Pittsburgh keeps trying to coax along — his walk rate has been an issue all year, though Don Kelly has pointed to recent progress and Chandler did pick up the W in his last outing in Houston.
The Braves are 44-21 and have won 18 of their last 21 series. They've already locked this one up — Dominic Smith went deep on Saturday, Mauricio Dubón has now homered in three straight, and Atlanta clawed back from an early 3-0 deficit to win 6-3 for the second consecutive day. They are basically a buzzsaw right now, and the Pirates have run into them at the worst possible moment.
Pittsburgh is doing this without a chunk of the roster. Joey Bart is still on the IL with a foot issue, shortstop prospect Konnor Griffin is down with a flexor strain, and the bullpen is patched together without Mike Clevinger (MCL sprain, six weeks) and Chris Devenski. Atlanta isn't exactly whole either — Sean Murphy is still in a splint, Jurickson Profar is gone for the year on the PED suspension, and Michael Harris II sat Saturday with a back issue — but you'd much rather be the team with the 23-game lead in the win column.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo SP — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda RP — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger RP — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan SP — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 10-Day-ILKonnor Griffin SS — The Pirates placed Griffin on the 10-day injured list Sunday due to a flexor strain in his right elbow.
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart C — Bart (foot) has been cleared to resume weight room activity and play light catch, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski RP — Devenski (illness) is expected to resume throwing bullpen sessions during the upcoming week, MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMichael Harris II CF — Harris (back) is not in Atlanta's starting lineup against Pittsburgh on Saturday, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter RP — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
- 10-Day-ILDrake Baldwin C — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Baldwin (oblique) could be activated from the 10-day injured list during the team's June 16-21 homestand, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILKyle Farmer DH — Farmer went 1-for-3 with a double, a run scored and two RBI in Sunday's rout of the Guardians.
- suspensionJurickson Profar LF — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILSean Murphy C — Murphy had the cast on his left hand removed Tuesday and is now wearing a splint to protect his fractured middle finger, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reprots.
- 60-Day-ILHurston Waldrep SP — Waldrep (elbow) allowed no hits and walked two batters over two scoreless innings during a rehab start Monday in the rookie-level Florida Complex League.
- 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach SP — Schwellenbach (elbow) has begun throwing on flat ground, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
The road map for the Pirates is pretty simple: get to Elder early before he settles in, hope Chandler's walk rate behaves on the road, and pray the bullpen can navigate the back half against a lineup that has scored 6 runs in this series without anyone really breaking a sweat. The market is telling you to take the Braves and run. Hard to argue.