The Pirates rolled into this Cardinals series riding a 4-game skid, dropped the opener 9-6 in 10 innings on an Iván Herrera walk-off, then punched back with a 7-0 shutout to even things up. A getaway-day rubber match against a Cardinals team that's been the better club all year is exactly the kind of spot the 2026 Pirates have either stolen or completely face-planted in.
Braxton Ashcraft gets the ball for Pittsburgh and the underlying month has been excellent — a 2.11 ERA across 3 May starts with 17 strikeouts to 2 walks in 21.1 innings. The catch: his last outing was a 6.2-inning, 4-run mess in an 11-9 loss to Philly, and his only previous look at this Cardinals lineup (April 28) went 4.1 innings and 6 runs. So the form is real, the matchup history is ugly, and somewhere in the middle is Thursday.
Dustin May counters at 3-4 with a 4.81 ERA that doesn't really tell the recent story. Over his last 5 starts he's pitched to a 3.38, including 6 innings of 3-run ball in a win over Kansas City last time out. The Cardinals don't need vintage Dodgers May — they need 6 innings and the bullpen, which has been the difference in this series so far.
The market is reading this like the Pirates have the better arm but the Cardinals have everything else. Pittsburgh is a slim moneyline favorite at Pinnacle, but DK money is piling onto St. Louis at home — 75% of the handle and 70% of the bets on the Cardinals ML. Run line shoppers are doing the same: 92% of the spread handle is sitting on St. Louis +1.5. Both sides come out as small EV losers, which is fair for a coin-flip game where neither bullpen is particularly fun.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo SP — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda RP — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger RP — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan SP — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 10-Day-ILRyan O'Hearn RF — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that O'Hearn's right quadriceps strain is considered "moderate" and will likely keep him on the injured list for around four weeks, Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJoey Bart C — Manager Don Kelly said Bart, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rockies, is "banged up," Chris Halicke of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski RP — The Pirates placed Devenski on the 15-day injured list Thursday due to an illness.
- 60-Day-ILJared Jones SP — Jones (elbow) threw four scoreless innings, allowing three hits and no walks while striking out four in a rehab appearance with Double-A Altoona on Tuesday, per MLB.com.
- Day-To-DayPacky Naughton RP — Naughton will undergo surgery next month to repair the damaged UCL in his left elbow, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- Day-To-DaySem Robberse SP — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- Day-To-DayVictor Santos RP — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
- Day-To-DayIxan Henderson SP — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
- Day-To-DayZack Thompson RP — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
- 10-Day-ILRamon Urias 3B — Urias was scheduled to get his injured right elbow re-evaluated by a doctor Friday, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- 60-Day-ILLars Nootbaar LF — Nootbaar (heels) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Palm Beach on Friday, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
The injury sheets matter here. The Pirates are without Ryan O'Hearn (quad, ~4 weeks per Ben Cherington), Joey Bart, and a chunk of the bullpen including Mike Clevinger (MCL, 6 weeks). The Cardinals are managing without Ramon Urias and still waiting on Lars Nootbaar's heel rehab. Neither lineup is at full strength, but St. Louis has more depth to absorb it.
First pitch is 12:15 local. Win it and the Pirates leave St. Louis with a series and some momentum heading home. Lose it and the 4-game slide that just got interrupted starts to feel like the real version of this team.