TLDR: Chicago is still comfortably above .500 for the season, but nothing about the last week and a half has looked like a playoff club — and Pittsburgh's ace is walking into the middle of it.
Pittsburgh sends its ace, Paul Skenes, to Wrigley off one of his better starts of the year, while Chicago counters with Clay Holmes fresh off an 8-run beating that capped a four-game losing skid. The Pirates have quietly climbed back to .500 on a hot week, while the Cubs, still comfortably above the break-even mark for the season, are trying to stop the bleeding with a beat-up rotation and their shortstop out with an oblique injury.
+Season record still comfortably above .500 at 81-66
+Holmes carries a sub-3.00 ERA into the turn
−Lost 4 straight, including dropping first 3 to Milwaukee
−Holmes was rocked for 8 runs in his last start
−Shortstop Dansby Swanson out with an oblique strain
Pittsburgh and Chicago already meet once before this, in Friday's series opener at Wrigley, but Saturday's window belongs to the best arm either side is running out this weekend. Paul Skenes gets the ball for the Pirates at 1:20 PM CT, coming off a start where he worked 5.1 shutout innings against the Angels on just 87 pitches, with 2 strikeouts and only 1 walk. Clay Holmes takes it for the Cubs, and his line looks a lot shakier — after sitting on a 2.83 ERA for most of the year, his last time out was an 8-run beating in 4.1 innings against Miami.
Paul Skenes
(10-11)·3.82 ERA
Sep 6 vs Angels
W
5.1IP
0ER
2K
1BB
87P
09/12 Lineup
Clay Holmes
(6-8)·3.29 ERA
Sep 6 @ Marlins
L
4.1IP
8ER
2K
3BB
80P
09/12 Lineup
Holmes' meltdown lines up with a rough stretch for the whole Cubs pitching staff. Justin Steele, Cade Horton and Edward Cabrera are all either on the 60-day injured list or working back from one, and shortstop Dansby Swanson has been out since mid-August with an oblique strain. Pittsburgh isn't spotless either — Mitch Keller has been shelved since early August, and Braxton Ashcraft, who struck out 9 against the Angels in his final turn before landing on the IL, joined him there this week.
None of that has shown up in the win column for Pittsburgh, which has climbed back to the .500 mark and looks nothing like a team playing out the string. Chicago, still comfortably above break-even for the season, has looked like a different club lately. Saturday's forecast calls for 87 degrees and cloudy skies at Wrigley — nothing that should slow either lineup down.
Pittsburgh has won 4 straight as of Thursday, the run built on taking the first 3 meetings with the crosstown White Sox after splitting a two-game set with the Angels. Chicago has gone the other way, dropping 4 in a row, including losing the first 3 of a set with Milwaukee after splitting two games with Miami.
The standings still favor Chicago — the Cubs sit at 81-66 and are fighting for playoff position, while the Pirates are 74-73 and just clawing back to even. But neither club has looked like its record this month, and with Skenes on the mound against a Cubs staff running on fumes, that gap is the story of Saturday's matinee.
Pirates 3, Cubs 4: Final Score & Odds Recap — Paul Skenes Faces a Reeling Cubs Club at Wrigley Saturday
