The Pirates are quietly 20-17 and starting to look like a team you have to take seriously, and they get to send Mitch Keller to the mound at Chase Field with a 2.85 ERA and the kind of recent form that makes opposing lineups want a day off. The D-backs counter with Zac Gallen, who is coming off a 6-run, 3.2-inning stinker against the Cubs that snapped a stretch of five straight quality-ish outings.
Keller's last time out he went 7 innings against the Reds, gave up 1 earned run, struck out 6, and the Pirates won 9-1. That is the version Pittsburgh has been getting most of the year, and it's the reason a 20-17 team feels real instead of fluky. He has been the stabilizer a young rotation needs while Jared Jones works his way back through Triple-A Indianapolis.
Gallen is the more interesting story because nobody is sure which one shows up. Before the Cubs blowup he had been steady, but he also took a line drive off the right shoulder the start before that, threw a clean bullpen, and decided to make his next turn anyway. The bruise is supposedly fine. The 4.45 ERA says the results, fine or not, have not been there.
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan SP — Sullivan owns a 5.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 11:5 K:BB in 7.2 innings over his three appearances since being promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis on June 10.
- Day-To-DayDominic Fletcher RF — The Pirates reassigned Fletcher to minor-league camp Monday.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo SP — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger RP — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda RP — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
- SuspensionChris Devenski RP — Devenski's suspension for intentionally throwing at Sal Stewart during Saturday's game versus the Reds has been reduced to two games, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 60-Day-ILJared Jones SP — Jones (elbow) allowed one earned run on five hits and one walk while striking out two across 3.0 innings and 54 pitches in a rehab outing with Triple-A Indianapolis on Wednesday, Jared Greenspan of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt RP — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Santana 1B — Santana (thigh) is continuing to rehab at Triple-A Reno and will be evaluated by the end of the week, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 10-Day-ILTyler Locklear 1B — The Diamondbacks assigned Locklear (elbow) to a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League on Saturday, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILPavin Smith 1B — Smith (elbow) will take dry swings next week, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 60-Day-ILJordan Lawlar LF — Lawlar is doing as much baseball activity as possible without using his fractured right wrist, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes SP — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.
- 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk RP — Puk (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and provided an update following the activity, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 60-Day-ILBlake Walston SP — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
Arizona's injury sheet is genuinely brutal — Corbin Burnes, A.J. Puk, and Justin Martinez are all 60-day cases, and the infield depth at first base has been gutted with Carlos Santana, Pavin Smith, and Tyler Locklear all on the shelf. The Pirates are healthier in comparison, with Mike Clevinger the only meaningful bullpen loss and Chris Devenski about to come back from a 2-game suspension for plunking Sal Stewart.
The market has this one essentially a coin flip on the moneyline, which feels generous to Arizona given the pitching matchup and the way both teams are trending. Pinnacle has the D-backs at -106, fair, but DK is asking for -132 on the Pirates side and the EV gets ugly fast. Total is split between books too — 9 at Pinnacle, 7.5 at DK — so if you like an angle, the under at the higher number with Keller on the mound is the cleanest read.
Pirates by a run feels like the bet, but the actual play here is just watching Keller work in the desert afternoon and seeing whether Gallen can get out of the 4th. If he can, Arizona is in it. If he can't, this gets out of hand early.