Braxton Ashcraft vs. Landen Roupp isn't the marquee pitching matchup you'd circle on a Saturday night, but it's the kind both sides will happily take. Ashcraft brings a 3.02 ERA into the start coming off 7.2 shutout innings against the Reds on May 3 — a career-high workload on just 82 pitches. Roupp counters at 5-2 with a 3.18 ERA, fresh off beating the Dodgers while walking five but holding them to one hit over 5 innings.
The Giants record is a little misleading and a lot not. They've been bad, but Roupp has not been the reason — he's the closest thing this rotation has to a stabilizer right now with Logan Webb pitching through knee discomfort. The bigger problem is that the bullpen behind him is held together with tape. We'll get to that.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo SP — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda RP — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger RP — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayDominic Fletcher RF — Fletcher (shoulder) had his rehab assignment transferred to Triple-A Charlotte on Thursday and went 2-for-7 with a solo home run and a walk in his first two rehab games with the club.
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan SP — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 10-Day-ILJake Mangum LF — The Pirates placed Mangum on the 10-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain, retroactive to Wednesday.
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski RP — The Pirates placed Devenski on the 15-day injured list Thursday due to an illness.
- 60-Day-ILJared Jones SP — Jones (elbow) allowed one earned run on five hits and one walk while striking out two across three innings in a rehab outing with Triple-A Indianapolis on Wednesday.
- Day-To-DayLogan Webb SP — Manager Tony Vitello said after Tuesday's loss to the Padres that Webb was dealing with knee discomfort during his start, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
- 10-Day-ILHarrison Bader CF — Bader (hamstring) went 1-for-3 in Triple-A Sacramento's 4-0 loss to Reno on Tuesday.
- 10-Day-ILDaniel Susac C — Susac (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sacramento on Thursday, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
- 15-Day-ILSam Hentges RP — Hentges (knee/shoulder) struck out one in a scoreless inning during Triple-A Sacramento's 7-6 win over Tacoma on Wednesday.
- 15-Day-ILErik Miller RP — Miller (back) will throw a bullpen session Thursday before beginning a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sacramento on Sunday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
- 60-Day-ILJared Oliva CF — The Giants transferred Oliva (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
- 60-Day-ILRowan Wick RP — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
- 60-Day-ILHayden Birdsong RP — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
Look at the Giants relief list and tell me how Bob Melvin sleeps. Wick, Birdsong, Foley, Rodriguez, Sanmartin, Butto — all on the 60-day. Hentges and Miller on the 15. That's the entire setup tier of a real bullpen sitting in rehab. Pittsburgh isn't exactly healthy either (Clevinger out 6 weeks with an MCL sprain, Devenski sick, Mosqueda's forearm), but the Pirates can at least hand a 6th-inning lead to someone who's been throwing in big-league games this month.
Now the funny part. The market has San Francisco as a slight home favorite at -132 on Pinnacle, with DraftKings public money piling on the home moneyline at 51% handle vs. just 39% of bets — i.e., sharper money on the Giants. The fair-price model says the actual edge is on San Francisco at +EV on the home ML. The Pirates are the better team on paper and the road favorite by raw line, but you're paying a tax for it.
Total sits at 7.5 with juice slightly to the under. Two starters with sub-3.20 ERAs in a pitcher's park, at night, with marine layer rolling in — that's the textbook under setup. The textbook also says 66% of DK tickets are on the over because retail bettors hate watching 3-2 games. Pick your side.
Pittsburgh has won 3 of its last 5 and looks like a team that's actually buying into being decent. The Giants alternated wins and losses across their last 5 and feel like a team trying to figure out who they are without Webb at full strength and without half the bullpen. First pitch is 8:05 PM ET. Take Ashcraft going 6 strong and see what happens when the bullpens decide it.