On the mound it's Bubba Chandler against Tyler Mahle, which on paper is a battle of two pitchers carrying matching 1-4 records and ERAs north of 4.75. Chandler's last outing was the kind of start you try to delete from the memory bank — 5 innings of work but 6 walks issued in a 9-0 loss to the Diamondbacks on May 6. He threw 38 pitches in the first inning alone before settling in. The stuff is real, the command has been a problem all year.
Mahle's tenure as a Giant has been a slow rolling shrug. He flashed it in spring (10 scoreless innings, 13 strikeouts) and even rebounded with a scoreless start earlier this season, but the line still says 5.00 ERA and a Giants offense that ranks dead last in basically everything is not going to bail him out if he's nibbling. Pittsburgh's pitching staff sits 3rd in MLB by fWAR. The Giants' is 24th. That gap shows up over 9 innings.
The market sees this as a near coin flip — Pinnacle has the Giants at -110, the Pirates at -100, and a fair-probability split of 51/49. The total sits at 8 on Pinnacle and 7.5 on DK, which tracks for a game at Oracle with two starters who can miss bats but also miss the zone. Public money on DK is leaning Pirates moneyline (65% of handle) while bet count is split closer down the middle.
Health is the other separator. The Pirates are dealing with the usual Jared Jones / Mike Clevinger / Chris Devenski pitching attrition, but the lineup is largely intact outside of Jake Mangum's hamstring. The Giants list is genuinely brutal — Webb, Harrison Bader, Daniel Susac, and most of a bullpen (Hayden Birdsong, Randy Rodriguez, Jason Foley, Jose Butto, Rowan Wick, Sam Hentges, Erik Miller). That's not a depth chart, that's a triage list.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo (SP) — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda (RP) — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger (RP) — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayDominic Fletcher (RF) — Fletcher (shoulder) had his rehab assignment transferred to Triple-A Charlotte on Thursday and went 2-for-7 with a solo home run and a walk in his first two rehab games with the club.05/08
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan (SP) — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/08
- 10-Day-ILJake Mangum (LF) — The Pirates placed Mangum on the 10-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain, retroactive to Wednesday.05/08
- 15-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP) — The Pirates placed Devenski on the 15-day injured list Thursday due to an illness.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJared Jones (SP) — Jones (elbow) allowed one earned run on five hits and one walk while striking out two across three innings in a rehab outing with Triple-A Indianapolis on Wednesday.05/08
- 10-Day-ILHarrison Bader (CF) — Bader (hamstring) went 1-for-3 in Triple-A Sacramento's 4-0 loss to Reno on Tuesday.05/08
- 10-Day-ILDaniel Susac (C) — Susac (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sacramento on Thursday, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILLogan Webb (SP) — The Giants placed Webb on the 15-day injured list Saturday due to right knee bursitis, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.05/09
- 15-Day-ILSam Hentges (RP) — Hentges (knee/shoulder) struck out one in a scoreless inning during Triple-A Sacramento's 7-6 win over Tacoma on Wednesday.05/08
- 15-Day-ILErik Miller (RP) — Miller (back) will throw a bullpen session Thursday before beginning a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sacramento on Sunday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJared Oliva (CF) — The Giants transferred Oliva (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRowan Wick (RP) — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILHayden Birdsong (RP) — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILReiver Sanmartin (RP) — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJason Foley (RP) — Foley (shoulder) is throwing live batting practice Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRandy Rodriguez (RP) — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJose Butto (RP) — The Giants transferred Butto (arm) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.05/08
Bottom line: Pittsburgh is the better team right now, has the better-rested rotation behind today's starter, and is facing a club whose offense Brandon Lowe and the rest of the NL have been pushing around for a month. If Chandler can simply throw strikes, the Pirates should be flying back east with a series win in their pocket.