Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies

By Bush StaffUpdated 52d ago·2 min read
Pittsburgh PiratesPIT(43-43)
Philadelphia PhilliesPHI(48-38)
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PIT
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PHI
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Skenes (6-7, 3.10 ERA) and Wheeler (8-1, 2.03 ERA) square off in game 3 of this series at Citizens Bank Park, with first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. Both starters are legitimately elite — but Wheeler right now isn't just good, he's operating at a tier that most pitchers never reach in a single season, let alone after major vascular surgery.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Pirates(43-43)
LWWLL
6
Phillies(48-38)
WLWLW
10
Best BetPhillies -143
Pregame

Philadelphia at -133 is pricing in Wheeler being Wheeler, and given his June (0.58 ERA, NL Pitcher of the Month), that's fair value. Pittsburgh's offense has gone quietly in 5 of Skenes' last 7 starts, and Wheeler is a tougher draw than any of those opponents. The price doesn't feel inflated here.

Wheeler won NL Pitcher of the Month for June after posting a 0.58 ERA across 5 starts. His last outing, June 26 against the Mets, went 7 innings and 1 earned run on 98 pitches. He had a rib removed 9 months ago to address thoracic outlet syndrome and has come back throwing the ball as well as he ever has. Philadelphia is getting the best version of a pitcher who was already a frontline ace.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Paul Skenes
(8-8)·3.57 ERA
Jun 26 vs Reds
ND
5.0IP
4ER
7K
2BB
96P
07/01 Lineup
Philadelphia Phillies
Zack Wheeler
(10-1)·2.13 ERA
Jun 26 @ Mets
W
7.0IP
1ER
5K
1BB
98P
07/01 Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(43-43)
Jun 30L@ Phillies0-8
Jun 29W@ Phillies11-7
Jun 28Wvs Reds9-4
Jun 27Lvs Reds7-9
Jun 26Lvs Reds4-6
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(48-38)
Jun 30Wvs Pirates8-0
Jun 29Lvs Pirates7-11
Jun 28W@ Mets5-4
Jun 27L@ Mets2-6
Jun 26W@ Mets2-1

The Pirates split the first 2 games of this series in jarring fashion — 11-7 on Monday, then a 0-8 shutout on Tuesday. That whipsaw is Pittsburgh in a nutshell: capable of a genuine offensive explosion one night, completely invisible the next. The bigger issue for this game is what's happened in Skenes starts specifically. The Pirates have dropped 7 straight with Skenes on the mound, and his ERA is still 3.10 — this is not a Skenes problem. Pittsburgh has scored 2 or fewer runs in 5 of those 7 games. Going up against a Wheeler who is posting sub-1.00 ERA figures for June is not when that pattern reverses.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
(8)
  • Day-To-DayJared Jones (SP)no07/01
  • Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo (SP)Solometo underwent left shoulder labrum surgery and is expected to be sidelined until at least April 2027, Mark Chiarelli of Baseball America reports.06/09
  • Day-To-DayMitch Jebb (LF)
  • Day-To-DaySean Sullivan (SP)Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.05/08
  • 10-Day-ILSpencer Horwitz (1B)Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Horwitz (hamstring) will remain sidelined for "weeks, not days," and the first baseman isn't expected to return from the 10-day injured list until after the All-Star break, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.06/28
  • 10-Day-ILOneil Cruz (CF)Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that he expects Cruz (hand) to return from the 10-day injured list at some point in July, most likely after the All-Star break, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.06/28
  • 15-Day-ILWilber Dotel (RP)Dotel (lat) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Altoona on Saturday, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.06/27
  • 60-Day-ILChris Devenski (RP)Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.06/07
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
(8)
  • Day-To-DayLiover Peguero (SS)The Phillies reassigned Peguero to minor-league camp Sunday.06/18
  • Day-To-DayAndrew Walling (RP)
  • Day-To-DayCarson DeMartini (SS)
  • Day-To-DayDaniel Robert (RP)Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary (C)Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.05/08
  • 15-Day-ILBrad Keller (RP)Keller (forearm) completed a live batting practice session Tuesday, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/30
  • 60-Day-ILJohan Rojas (CF)Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILAdolis Garcia (RF)The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.06/24

Pittsburgh is also missing 2 of its better bats. Oneil Cruz (hand) and Spencer Horwitz (hamstring) are both expected to be out past the All-Star break, per GM Ben Cherington. That's a power bat in center field and a first baseman who was contributing — both gone. The Phillies have their own IL names — Adolis Garcia and Johan Rojas are on the 60-day — but those losses sting less when Wheeler is doing what he's been doing and Philadelphia is at home with a 48-38 record. The Phillies haven't run away with the NL East, but a series at home against a shorthanded Pirates club is one they need.

MLBPittsburgh PiratesPhiladelphia PhilliesPolymarketKalshiPaul SkenesZack Wheeler