Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers

By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Pittsburgh has spent the last week winning games by the skin of its teeth, and it rolls into Comerica one win away from locking up a winning season. Detroit's season is long over, and so is most of its lineup.

FRI SEP 25, 6:40 PM
Spread
WIN
Total
(81-78)
WLWWW
(74-85)
LLWLL

A Pirates team 1 win from a winning season visits a Tigers team that has scored 2 runs or fewer in 4 of its last 5 and is missing Colt Keith, Kerry Carpenter and most of its outfield. Bubba Chandler against Jackson Jobe is close on paper. Pittsburgh has been winning with pitching and 1-run finishes, and Detroit's lineup and bullpen are both short-handed. The board has it as a near coin flip with a low total.

Pirates
  • 4-1 in last 5, 3 of the wins by 1 run
  • Staff allowed 1 or 0 runs in 2 of last 3
  • 1 win locks a winning season
  • Chandler: 8 hits, 90 pitches in 4 innings last start
  • Offense scored 2 runs or fewer in 3 of last 5
  • Keller, Ashcraft, Endy Rodriguez and Valdez all on IL
Tigers
  • Jobe struck out 9 in 6 innings last time
  • Verlander and Flaherty due back this weekend
  • 1-4 in last 5, lost 2 straight
  • Keith (thumb) and Carpenter (foot) out of the lineup
  • Bullpen missing Finnegan, Vest, Horn and Smith

Bubba Chandler (8-9, 4.34) draws Jackson Jobe (2-3, 3.98) at 6:40 PM ET, and both are coming off very different nights. Chandler grinded through his last start against Kansas City: 4 innings, 8 hits, 3 earned and 90 pitches, a no-decision the Pirates bailed out late. Jobe went 6 innings in Chicago with 9 strikeouts, 4 hits and 1 walk, and still took the loss because Detroit scored 1 run behind him.

Bubba Chandler
Bubba Chandler
(8-9)·4.34 ERA
Sep 19 vs Royals
ND
4.0IP
3ER
6K
1BB
90P
09/25 Lineup
Jackson Jobe
Jackson Jobe
(2-3)·3.98 ERA
Sep 19 @ White Sox
L
6.0IP
3ER
9K
1BB
96P
09/25 Lineup

That last part keeps coming up for Detroit. Colt Keith went on the 10-day IL with a left thumb sprain on September 21. Kerry Carpenter is still working through his running and hitting progression with his foot, and Matt Vierling, Parker Meadows and Wenceel Perez are all on the 60-day list, so the Tigers are rebuilding an outfield on the fly. Pittsburgh has holes too. Mitch Keller and Braxton Ashcraft are both out of the rotation, Endy Rodriguez is on the 60-day with his hip and Esmerlyn Valdez is down with a hamstring. The market has this about as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5, and they haven't needed much offense to get there. They beat Kansas City 6-5 and 4-3, then won 2 of 3 against St. Louis with scores of 2-0 and 2-1. That's 3 one-run wins and a shutout in 5 games, all on the pitching staff and the late innings. At 81-78 with 3 to play, 1 more win clinches a winning record.

09/24WvsCardinals2-1
09/23LvsCardinals1-5
09/22WvsCardinals2-0
09/20WvsRoyals4-3
09/19WvsRoyals6-5
09/23LvsNationals2-4
09/22LvsNationals1-3
09/21WvsNationals9-2
09/20L@White Sox1-8
09/19L@White Sox1-3

Detroit is 1-4 in its last 5 and has lost 2 straight. The Tigers scored 14 runs in that stretch, and 9 of them came in one blowout of Washington. In the other 4 games they scored 1, 1, 1 and 2. This final series is mostly about who's coming back. Justin Verlander is set to come off the 60-day IL to start Saturday, River Ryan lines up for Sunday, and Jack Flaherty is expected to be activated and pitch at some point this weekend. For one night it's Jobe and whatever lineup A.J. Hinch can put together.

  • 10-Day-ILEsmerlyn Valdez (RF) — Valdez (hamstring) isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against the Cubs.09/12
  • 15-Day-ILBraxton Ashcraft (SP) — Ashcraft (arm) played catch Friday but is not expected to return this season.09/18
  • 15-Day-ILIsaac Mattson (RP) — The Pirates recalled Mattson from Triple-A Indianapolis on Friday.09/08
  • 60-Day-ILMitch Keller (SP) — Keller (shoulder) said Wednesday that he feels fully healthy and plans to resume throwing in late October.09/23
  • 60-Day-ILEndy Rodriguez (C) — The Pirates transferred Rodriguez (hip) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.09/01
  • 10-Day-ILColt Keith (3B) — The Tigers placed Keith on the 10-day injured list Monday due to a left thumb sprain.09/21
  • 10-Day-ILKerry Carpenter (RF) — Carpenter (foot) has ramped up his running and hitting progression with the hope of returning from the injured list before the end of the season.09/17
  • 15-Day-ILJack Flaherty (SP) — Flaherty (forearm) will be activated from the 15-day injured list and pitch during this weekend's series against the Pirates.09/22
  • 15-Day-ILTroy Melton (SP) — The Tigers placed Melton on the 15-day injured list Monday due to right arm fatigue.09/21
  • 15-Day-ILKyle Finnegan (RP) — The Tigers placed Finnegan on the 15-day injured list Thursday, retroactive to Wednesday, with left groin inflammation.09/17
  • 60-Day-ILJustin Verlander (SP) — Verlander (hamstring/hip) is scheduled to be reinstated from the 60-day injured list to start Saturday against the Pirates.09/21
  • 60-Day-ILWenceel Perez (RF) — Perez (orbital) is "most likely" done for the season.09/11
  • 60-Day-ILMatt Vierling (CF) — The Tigers transferred Vierling (adductor/heel) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.09/06
  • 60-Day-ILWill Vest (RP) — Vest (elbow) underwent hip surgery Tuesday.08/11
  • 60-Day-ILBurch Smith (RP) — Smith is being evaluated after exiting a rehab appearance with Triple-A Toledo on Thursday with right shoulder/lat discomfort.07/24
  • 60-Day-ILBailey Horn (RP) — Horn (elbow) will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery.07/18
  • 60-Day-ILParker Meadows (CF) — Meadows (forearm) has yet to resume hitting and is without a timeline to return from the 60-day injured list.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILTrey Sweeney (SS) — Sweeney will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery this week.06/05
  • 60-Day-ILReese Olson (SP) — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday after he underwent a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.05/08

It'll be 64 degrees and cloudy at Comerica with barely any wind, so the weather shouldn't push this either way. Two things decide it. First, can Jobe's strikeout stuff keep a Pirates lineup that's been winning with 2 runs from getting even that many? Second, if Chandler runs his pitch count up early again, can Detroit's thinned-out lineup do anything with it? Kyle Finnegan, Will Vest, Bailey Horn and Burch Smith are all out of the Tigers bullpen, so if this is close late, Pittsburgh has the edge in relief depth.

Live Odds

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