TLDR: Game 162 at Comerica, and Pittsburgh walks in at 81-80. Win and the Pirates finish above .500; lose and they finish at 81-81 after dropping 2 one-run games in Detroit.
Pittsburgh closes the season at Comerica needing a win to finish with a winning record, after losing the first 2 games of the series by 1 run each. Jared Jones has been dominant in September and faces a Tigers staff that starts River Ryan on a limited workload and then goes to a thinned bullpen. The Pirates are road favorites. The open question is whether their inconsistent offense scores enough to back Jones up.
−Keith, Vierling, Meadows, Perez missing from lineup
The pitching matchup is lopsided on paper, and it isn't the ERAs that make it so. Jared Jones (5-6, 3.87) has been Pittsburgh's best arm this month: 3 wins in 4 September starts, a 1.08 ERA over 25 innings, and 35 strikeouts against 4 walks. His last time out was 7 innings of 1-hit ball against St. Louis, with 9 strikeouts, no walks and only 86 pitches. River Ryan (0-0, 0.00) gets the ball for Detroit in his second start as a Tiger after 3 scoreless innings against Washington in his debut. He'll be on a restricted workload again, so a clean line from him still covers maybe a third of the game.
Jared Jones
(5-6)·3.87 ERA
Sep 22 vs Cardinals
W
7.0IP
0ER
9K
0BB
86P
09/27 Lineup
River Ryan
(0-0)·0.00 ERA
Sep 21 vs Nationals
ND
3.0IP
0ER
3K
1BB
43P
09/27 Lineup
That puts a lot of Sunday on Detroit's bullpen, and the bullpen is short. Kyle Finnegan is on the IL with groin inflammation, Will Vest and Burch Smith are on the 60-day, and Bailey Horn is out after Tommy John surgery. The lineup is missing Colt Keith (thumb), Matt Vierling, Parker Meadows and Wenceel Perez. Kerry Carpenter is ramping up with an eye on returning before the season ends, but there isn't much season left. Pittsburgh's worry is Oneil Cruz, who is day-to-day and was out of the lineup earlier in the week. Books have the Pirates as a road favorite, which makes sense given the starters.
The first 2 games of this series went Detroit's way by a combined 2 runs. The Tigers won the opener 8-7 and then won 4-3 when Eduardo Valencia hit a 2-run walk-off homer off Mason Montgomery in the 9th. Pittsburgh has had the lead late and hasn't been able to hold it.
Pittsburgh's offense is still the question. Before coming to Detroit, the Pirates scored 5 runs in 3 games against St. Louis and won 2 of them because the pitching allowed almost nothing. The bats woke up for 7 in the opener here and then went back to 3. If Jones pitches like he has all month, the Pirates probably need 3 or 4 runs, and most of those innings will come against Detroit relievers, not Ryan.
First pitch is 3:10 PM ET under clear skies, 76 degrees with a 10 mph breeze. Detroit is at 76-85 and playing for nothing but a sweep. Pittsburgh is playing to finish above .500, and the Pirates have their hottest starter going against a Tigers staff that will be patching innings together after the 3rd.
Live Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers — Pirates Hand Jared Jones the Ball With a Winning Record on the Line | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush
