The Rangers roll into the Bronx at 16-18, scuffling at the plate and missing Wyatt Langford, and they're sending the best pitcher on the planet to try to flip the script. deGrom is 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA and coming off a 4-inning, no-decision against Seattle where the Mariners ran his pitch count up to 88. Short outing, but scoreless — and reports have him at a 1.50 ERA over the last week.
On the other side: Elmer Rodríguez, the 22-year-old Yankees prospect, 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA through his first big-league look. The Yankees liked him enough to DFA Randal Grichuk to clear his roster spot, and Aaron Judge (14 HR, 27 RBI per MLB.com's season splits) has been doing Aaron Judge things behind whoever takes the ball. Rodríguez has the stuff. He also has a Rangers lineup that's been bottom-5 in runs scored — a soft landing on paper, even with deGrom on the other side.
The injury list is where this gets ugly for Texas. Langford on the 10-day with a forearm. Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bradford still on the 60-day. The bullpen is held together with tape — Chris Martin, Robert Garcia, Carter Baumler, Luis Curvelo all on the IL. If deGrom gives them 6 strong, fine. If he doesn't, Skip Schumaker is mixing and matching with what's left.
- Day-To-DayBrandon Nimmo RF — Nimmo (hamstring) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Yankees.
- Day-To-DaySebastian Walcott SS — Rangers GM Ross Fenstermaker said Tuesday that Walcott could be ready for game action in August, "if all things according to plan" in his rehab from the internal brace procedure he underwent on his right elbow, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
- 10-Day-ILJosh Smith 2B — Smith is out of the lineup for Friday's game versus the Tigers.
- 10-Day-ILWyatt Langford LF — Langford (forearm) rejoined the Rangers in Detroit on Saturday and will rest for a full week before being reevaluated by the team, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
- 10-Day-ILCody Freeman 3B — Freeman (back) has resumed baseball activities, Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News reports.
- 15-Day-ILChris Martin RP — Rangers manager Skip Schumaker said Friday that Martin (biceps) "took the next step" in his recovery and will throw a bullpen soon, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
- 15-Day-ILCarter Baumler RP — Baumler (intercostal) allowed one run on two hits over one inning in a rehab appearance at Triple-A Round Rock last Wednesday.
- 15-Day-ILRobert Garcia RP — The Rangers placed Garcia on the 15-day injured list Thursday with left shoulder inflammation.
- Day-To-DayBen Rice 1B — Rice (hand) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rangers.
- Day-To-DayBen Hess SP — Double-A Somerset placed Hess on its 7-day injured list April 18 due to an unspecified injury.
- Day-To-DayTravis MacGregor SP — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
- 10-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton DH — Stanton (calf) has not been cleared to resume running, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 15-Day-ILGerrit Cole SP — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that Cole (elbow), who is making a rehab start Tuesday with High-A Hudson Valley, is still a "little ways away" from making his season debut with the Yankees, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILCarlos Rodon SP — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Rodon's (elbow) next rehab start Tuesday with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre could be his last, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 15-Day-ILAngel Chivilli RP — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILClarke Schmidt SP — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
The Yankees aren't fully healthy either — Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón are both on rehab assignments, Giancarlo Stanton's calf still hasn't been cleared to run, and Ben Rice (hand) is day-to-day. Doesn't matter much when you're 24-11 and Judge is locked in. They've won 4 of their last 5.
The market has the Yankees at -125 with the spread at -1.5 (+162) and a total of 8.5. DraftKings handle is firmly on the home side — 85% on the runline, 69% on the moneyline — and Pinnacle's fair number agrees. Every side carries negative EV here, so this is a watch-the-game spot more than a bet-the-house spot. Ace vs rookie, contender vs the team trying to claw back to .500. That's the pitch.
If deGrom can hold the Yankees to 2 or 3, the Rangers steal it. If Rodríguez settles in and gets through 5, this thing tips heavily toward the Bronx and the under feels live. Either way, you're watching deGrom in May with a 2-handle ERA — that alone is worth the price of admission.