Barstool Bush
Predictions

Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros

By Bush StaffUpdated 47d ago·2 min read
Tampa Bay RaysTB(52-34)
Houston AstrosHOU(44-47)
0—2
FINAL
123456789RHE
TB
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HOU
00010100—260

Mason Englert got the call to start this one after Houston roughed up the Rays' pitching staff in Saturday's slugfest, and Peter Lambert took the ball for the Astros looking to build off a run of good form.

Show fees
FINAL
Spread
ML
Total
Rays(52-34)
LWWWW
0
Astros(44-47)
WLLWL
2
Best BetRays -103
Postgame

Loss — the Rays got shut out 2-0, with the bullpen-fatigue bear case playing out in full.

Pregame

We backed the Rays here off their AL-best record and a lineup that had been the hottest in baseball for two weeks. That case didn't hold up Sunday, but a 52-34 club going 1-for-2 against a losing team over the weekend isn't a reason to abandon the ship.

Lambert has been quietly one of the better stories in Houston's rotation, going 4-1 over his last 7 starts even while dealing with a beat-up staff that's missing Lance McCullers Jr. and Ronel Blanco. Englert, meanwhile, was a corresponding move up from Triple-A Durham, thrown into a spot start with his role beyond Sunday still unclear.

Tampa Bay Rays
Mason Englert
(0-3)·4.54 ERA
Apr 7 vs Cubs
L
3.2IP
3ER
2K
1BB
65P
07/05 Lineup
Houston Astros
Peter Lambert
(8-5)·3.03 ERA
Jun 29 vs Twins
L
5.2IP
4ER
4K
3BB
100P
07/05 Lineup

Jeremy Pena remains out for Houston as he works through a rehab assignment, and Carlos Correa is done for the year after ankle surgery, so this Astros infield has had to piece things together all series. Tampa Bay, for its part, is still missing Steven Matz and Ryan Pepiot from the rotation, which is exactly why a reliever-turned-starter like Englert was needed in the first place.

The Rays rolled into this series winners of 9 straight, the longest streak in the AL, after steamrolling Kansas City and taking the opener here Friday. Then Yordan Alvarez happened. His two-homer, six-RBI, walk-off night on the 4th snapped that streak and flipped the series' momentum right back to Houston, and the Astros carried it into Sunday.

Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
(52-34)
Jul 4L@ Astros8-10
Jul 4W@ Astros3-1
Jul 2W@ Royals5-2
Jul 1W@ Royals4-0
Jun 30W@ Royals10-4
Houston Astros
Houston Astros
(44-47)
Jul 4Wvs Rays10-8
Jul 4Lvs Rays1-3
Jul 2Lvs Twins3-8
Jul 1Wvs Twins6-4
Jun 30Lvs Twins4-5

That carryover showed up immediately. Houston scratched across single runs in the 4th and 6th, and that was more than enough given what Englert and the Rays' bullpen were dealing with. Tampa Bay's lineup, which had been raking for a week and a half, went cold at the worst time.

Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
(9)
  • 10-Day-ILJake Fraley (RF) — Fraley (hernia) began a rehab assignment with the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Saturday, going 0-for-3 as the designated hitter.06/28
  • 15-Day-ILJesse Scholtens (RP) — Scholtens (wrist) completed a 20-pitch bullpen session June 8 but is without a clear target date for a return, MLB.com reports.07/02
  • 15-Day-ILSteven Matz (SP) — The Rays placed Matz on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a left ankle sprain.06/25
  • 60-Day-ILEdwin Uceta (RP) — Manager Kevin Cash said Friday that Uceta (shoulder) will resume his throwing program sometime around June 29, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.06/19
  • 60-Day-ILManuel Rodriguez (RP) — Manager Kevin Cash said Friday that Rodriguez (elbow) will begin throwing live batting practice June 30, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.06/19
  • 60-Day-ILGavin Lux (LF) — Lux (shoulder) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment June 29, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.06/19
  • 60-Day-ILJonathan Heasley (RP) — Heasley was returned to the major-league roster and placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right elbow stress reaction.06/08
  • 60-Day-ILSteven Wilson (RP) — The Rays hope Wilson (back) will be able to start bullpen sessions June 8, MLB.com reports.05/30
  • 60-Day-ILRyan Pepiot (SP) — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.05/08
Houston Astros
Houston Astros
(10)
  • Day-To-DayRaynel Delgado (2B) — The Astros recalled Delgado from Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.07/02
  • 10-Day-ILJeremy Pena (SS) — Pena (calf) is expected to play in minor-league rehab games this week and could come off the injured list for the final series before the All-Star break against the Rangers next weekend, rome reports.07/05
  • 10-Day-ILBraden Shewmake (SS) — Shewmake (adductor) has gone 3-for-9 with two doubles, three walks, one stolen base, three runs and one RBI over three rehab games between the rookie-level Florida Complex League and Triple-A Sugar Land.07/02
  • 15-Day-ILLance McCullers Jr. (SP) — McCullers (shoulder) struck out three and allowed one earned run on four hits and one walk across four innings Wednesday in a rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land.07/02
  • 15-Day-ILKai-Wei Teng (RP) — The Astros rescinded Teng's option and placed him on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a right knee sprain, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.07/01
  • 60-Day-ILBennett Sousa (RP) — Sousa (elbow) will throw a simulated game at Daikin Park on Wednesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.07/03
  • 60-Day-ILRonel Blanco (SP) — Blanco (elbow) struck out four and allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits and one walk across 4.1 innings Wednesday in a rehab start with Double-A Corpus Christi.07/02
  • 60-Day-ILHayden Wesneski (SP) — Wesneski (elbow) began a rehab assignment at the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Tuesday, tossing three scoreless innings with one strikeout.07/01
  • 60-Day-ILBrandon Walter (SP) — The Astros announced Friday that Walter (elbow) is in the midst of a throwing progression at the team's complex in West Palm Beach, Fla., Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.06/04
  • 60-Day-ILCarlos Correa (SS) — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.06/02

The final was as ugly as it gets for a team that had been steamrolling the league: 2 runs, 4 hits, 2 errors, and a shutout loss to close the set. Houston's pitching staff, which had been gashed for 8 runs less than 24 hours earlier, flipped the script completely and made sure Tampa Bay left Daikin Park with a split instead of a sweep.

For a Rays team that's still 8 games clear of .500 in the loss column, one flat Sunday doesn't change the big picture. But for an Astros club fighting to stay relevant in a crowded AL, salvaging a series against the best record in baseball is exactly the kind of stretch they needed.

Sources

MLBTampa Bay RaysHouston AstrosPolymarketKalshiMason EnglertPeter Lambert