The Rays land at Rogers Centre on a 4-of-5 heater after taking down the Red Sox on Sunday, and they hand the ball to Drew Rasmussen, who's been the most consistent arm in their rotation. The Blue Jays counter with Kevin Gausman, who has quietly been the only thing keeping Toronto's pitching staff from total collapse.
The injury situation in Toronto is where this gets ugly. Max Scherzer just got a cortisone shot in his forearm and is shut down for 5 days. Jose Berrios' MRI came back with inflammation and "small changes" to his elbow issue. Shane Bieber is still facing live hitters as a 60-day IL guy. That's three veteran starters on the shelf, which is why Gausman taking the ball feels less like a Game 1 ace move and more like a survival tactic.
Tampa Bay isn't exactly pristine either — Ryan Pepiot is done for the year with hip surgery scheduled for May 13, and Steven Matz is on the 15-day IL. The difference is that the Rays are deep enough to absorb it. Toronto isn't, and the lineup is starting to show the cracks. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .152 in May with zero homers, per the FanDuel preview, which is the kind of slump that turns a 1-run game into a loss.
- Day-To-DayAustin Vernon RP — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
- Day-To-DayTy Johnson SP — Triple-A Durham placed Johnson on the 7-day injured list due to a lower-back strain, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
- Day-To-DayLogan Driscoll C — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
- Day-To-DayKeyshawn Askew RP — no
- Day-To-DayTre' Morgan 1B — Triple-A Durham placed Morgan on the 7-day injured list with a quad injury, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
- Day-To-DayAlfredo Zarraga RP — no
- Day-To-DayJohn Rooney RP — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
- Day-To-DayTJ Nichols P — Double-A Montgomery placed Nichols on its 7-day injured list April 7 due to an unspecified injury.
- Day-To-DayAddison Barger RF — Barger will undergo an MRI on his right elbow after waking up Sunday with limited range of motion, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart C — no
- Day-To-DayChay Yeager RP — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- Day-To-DayCJ Stubbs C — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
- Day-To-DayJaven Coleman P — no
- 10-Day-ILNathan Lukes RF — Lukes (hamstring) has begun a running progression, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- 10-Day-ILAlejandro Kirk C — Kirk (thumb) is expected to begin hitting this weekend, Brian Murphy of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILMax Scherzer SP — Scherzer was given a cortisone shot in his injured right forearm and will be shut down from throwing for five days, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Rasmussen comes in with a 2.95 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP territory feel after carving up Cleveland and Boston in his last two trips out. Gausman has been very good in his own right at 3.09, but he's working with less margin given who's hitting behind him. The total is sitting at 7.5 with the under juiced to -121, which tracks — both guys miss bats and both bullpens have leverage arms that have been working.
Toronto opens as a slight home favorite at -124, which is the standard "home team, better pitcher's park, decent starter" tax. But the Rays are getting the better of every underlying metric you'd want — better record, hotter form, healthier roster, and a starter pitching to a lower ERA. The market thinks the Jays cover their narrow ground; the eye test says Tampa Bay grabs the opener and keeps the foot down.