Tampa Bay and Atlanta both sit at 85-58 atop their divisions, but by the time this getaway-day matinee rolls around, they'll have already played twice — so this is a preview of two clubs jockeying for October, not a locked-in series script.
THU SEP 10, 12:15 PM
Spread
WIN
Total
Rays
Braves
Tampa Bay hands the ball to Nick Martinez for the 12:15 PM ET getaway game, and his season has been one of the sport's better surprises: a 36-year-old journeyman who signed a one-year, $13 million deal over the winter and turned it into his first All-Star selection. He's 14-4 with a 3.04 ERA, and his last time out against Texas he went 6.1 innings with 3 earned runs and 4 strikeouts in a win. Atlanta hasn't named a starter for this one yet — Reynaldo Lopez is working back from a knee injury and reportedly could be nearing a return to make a start, per The Athletic's Jesus Cano, but nothing is confirmed for this particular game.
Both bullpens have taken hits lately. Tampa Bay lost starter Shane McClanahan to forearm tightness and has since placed relievers Manuel Rodriguez and Garrett Cleavinger on the 15-day injured list, while closer Bryan Baker — who's been one of MLB's busiest relievers this year — is day-to-day after exiting a recent outing due to illness. Atlanta is down its own power arm in Robert Suarez, who's on the 60-day injured list with an elbow issue, on top of already missing Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach for the season. Neither market nor roster sheet has fully caught up with how thin both pens have gotten in the last week.
The bigger picture is a pair of races still very much alive. Tampa Bay is fending off a New York Yankees club chasing the AL East, while Atlanta's cushion in the NL East has been shrinking fast against Philadelphia — the two clubs are playing seven times over a stretch that could decide who controls the division into October. Neither team gets to look past what's directly in front of it.
There's a lot of season left to play before this specific game arrives. Atlanta still has to close out its series in Philadelphia first, and both clubs open this very set against each other before Thursday's finale — meaning the bullpen picture, the lineup health and even the standings gap could look different by the time first pitch actually happens. That's not a hedge, it's just how a three-game series works when you're previewing game three of it days in advance.
Tampa Bay's rotation has taken the bigger hit of the two — losing McClanahan mid-race stings — but the lineup has stayed productive enough to hold the division lead. Atlanta, meanwhile, is still missing Jurickson Profar for the entire season on a PED suspension and is nursing its bullpen back to health at the worst possible time, with Philadelphia breathing down its neck. Both clubs have the talent to be playing into October; the next several days go a long way toward deciding how comfortably.
