Each game so far has turned on mistakes. Cleveland's arms held Tampa Bay to 3 runs in a 7-3 Game 1 win, and the Rays bullpen let that one get away. In Game 2, Freddy Peralta threw 6 scoreless innings, and all 3 Tampa Bay runs came in the 4th, all unearned, after a José Ramírez error set up a 2-run single by Liam Hicks. 4 earned runs combined over the last 15 innings or so says both pitching staffs are in control.
The weather could matter as much as either lineup. The forecast for Progressive Field is 60 degrees with heavy drizzle and a 69% chance of rain. That could mean a delay that ends a short start early, and wet, heavy air doesn't help hitters. With Jax probably not built for a long outing anyway, the Rays bullpen could be pitching from the 4th inning on, and a delay would push that even earlier.
Both clubs went 4-1 over their last 5. The Rays went 3-0 against the Yankees before splitting in St. Petersburg, and the Guardians went 3-0 against the White Sox before doing the same. The difference is the season behind it. Tampa Bay went 98-64 and is a deep team that has lost too many starters at once. Cleveland went 85-77 and is the hotter, rougher team now playing at home in front of its own crowd.
The Rays rotation situation is serious. Shane McClanahan (forearm) is done for the postseason, Ryan Pepiot has been out since hip surgery in May, and with Martinez's back the question is less about who starts than how many relievers Kevin Cash will have to use to get through 9 innings. Cleveland's lineup only needs to be patient. If it makes Jax work early and gets into the Tampa Bay bullpen before the 5th, the Guardians get the game they've wanted since Game 1.