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Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians

By JR·2 min read

Rays(98-64)

Guardians(85-77)

Friday 10/168:00 PM

TLDR: Cleveland has taken 2 of the first 3 in this ALCS, and Game 4 at Progressive Field is the chance to put a 98-win Tampa Bay club one loss from going home. The Rays, who won 13 more games than the Guardians this year, have to find some offense first.

SAT 10/17, SAT OCT 17, 8:00 PM TBS

Rays

(98-64)

LWLWW

Guardians

(85-77)

WLWWW

Cleveland leads the ALCS 2-1 after Petey Halpin's 2-run homer decided a 3-2 Game 3 in which Tampa Bay struck out 13 times and had 3 hits. Game 4 sets up as a reported Nick Martinez start for the Rays against a probable Guardians bullpen game, in 50-degree drizzle with 24 mph wind and a real chance of rain. Cleveland's pen is down Holderman and Walters and just covered 4 innings. The Rays have to solve their offense against several different arms to tie the series.

Tampa Bay Rays

Facing a likely bullpen game, not a rested starter
Cleveland pen covered 4 innings in Game 3
Won Game 2 3-1 behind run prevention
13 strikeouts, 3 hits in Game 3
8 runs total across 3 ALCS games
McClanahan out for postseason, rotation stretched thin

Cleveland Guardians

Halpin's 2-run homer flipped Game 3
Pitching held Rays to 3 runs or fewer all series
Won 4 of last 5
Bullpen down Holderman (wrist surgery) and Walters
Likely bullpen game the night after heavy relief use
Still missing Hoskins at first base

The pitching picture for Game 4 is messier than usual. Griffin Jax and Gavin Williams both started Game 3, with Williams striking out 9 over 5 innings on a heavy recent workload, so neither one is a real option tonight. As of Thursday, reporting had Tampa Bay going to Nick Martinez and Cleveland leaning toward a bullpen game, with Joey Cantillo in a big role and Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi lined up for bulk. Treat that as a plan, not a lineup card. The forecast could still shuffle it.

The forecast is a real factor. It's 50 degrees with light drizzle, a 34% chance of rain and 24 mph winds in Cleveland, and the reporting already mentioned the possibility of a postponement. A rainout gives Cleveland's short-handed pen a day to reset. It's already down Colin Holderman, who had wrist surgery this week, and Andrew Walters, who's out after UCL repair. If they do play, that same bullpen has to carry a full game the night after it covered the last 4 innings of Game 3 without allowing a run.

The real story of Game 3 was Tampa Bay's lineup. The Rays struck out 13 times, managed 3 hits and drew 1 walk. Casey Simpson's triple got them a 2-1 lead, and then Petey Halpin hit a 2-run homer off a 2-2 Jax sinker in the 5th and that was the whole game. Cleveland's pitchers have now held Tampa Bay to 3 runs or fewer in all 3 games of this series.

Cleveland's run is the reason it's here. The Guardians took the first 2 against the White Sox on the way in, won 4 of their last 5 overall and blew out the Rays 7-3 in the opener at Tropicana. Tampa Bay won the 3-1 game in Game 2 and has gone 3-2 over the same stretch. That's not a slump, but it's a team that has scored 8 runs across 3 ALCS games. A bullpen game is the Rays' chance to see several different arms in one night and finally get to one of them.

Both teams are banged up on the mound. Shane McClanahan's forearm has ended his postseason, and with Ryan Pepiot gone for the year after hip surgery, the Rays have been stretching a thin rotation for weeks. Cleveland still doesn't have Rhys Hoskins' bat at first and is now short 2 relievers. Whichever pitching staff gets through 9 innings in the cold with the fewest mistakes probably takes this, and given how both teams have hit in this series, a 3-run game might be enough.

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians

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