Jax (1-4, 4.76) gets the ball for Tampa Bay after a rough one in Detroit — 4 innings, 6 earned, chased at 72 pitches. He's still a relatively new convert to starting, and the bulk numbers reflect a guy whose runway is short. Alcantara (4-4, 4.59) is going for the Marlins off his best outing in weeks: 7 innings, 3 earned, 0 walks in a 7-3 win over the Nationals that snapped a 5-game skid for Miami.
Miami has been the hotter team for two weeks and they're 4-1 in their last 5, including a one-run win Saturday where Javier Sanoja did most of the damage. The Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 and just got punched in the mouth at home by Detroit before this trip. The market still likes Tampa though — the Rays are -113 on the moneyline and -1.5 favorites on the runline, which tells you what oddsmakers think of Jax/Alcantara on talent even with the recent form flipped.
The injury sheet is where this gets ugly for both sides. The Rays are without Chandler Simpson (thumb) again, and the bullpen is a triage center: Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Heasley, Manuel Rodriguez, Steven Wilson, Edwin Uceta, Michael Grove and Jesse Scholtens are all on the IL, with Ryan Pepiot already done for the year after hip surgery. Miami isn't faring much better — Thomas White is expected to miss the rest of the season with a shoulder capsular sprain, and Eury Perez and Janson Junk are both on the 15-day IL. Whoever blinks first in the middle innings probably loses this game.
- Day-To-DayChandler Simpson LF — Simpson (thumb) isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against the Marlins, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- Day-To-DayAustin Vernon RP — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
- Day-To-DayTre' Morgan 1B — Triple-A Durham placed Morgan on the 7-day injured list with a quad injury, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
- Day-To-DayAlfredo Zarraga RP — no
- 10-Day-ILJonny DeLuca RF — DeLuca is expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks after an MRI revealed a Grade 1 right hamstring strain, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
- 10-Day-ILJake Fraley RF — Rays manager Kevin Cash said Monday that Fraley (hernia) will require surgery and will face a recovery timeline of 6-to-8 weeks, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- 15-Day-ILJonathan Heasley RP — Heasley cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Durham on Saturday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- 15-Day-ILCraig Kimbrel RP — The Rays placed Kimbrel on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to a right wrist strain.
- Day-To-DayThomas White SP — White was diagnosed with a left shoulder capsular sprain Friday and is expected to miss the rest of the season, Isaac Azout of FishOnFirst.com reports.
- Day-To-DayKemp Alderman RF — Triple-A Jacksonville placed Alderman on the 7-day injured list Tuesday due to a left wrist injury, Michael Germanese of Roundtable.io reports.
- 15-Day-ILJosh Ekness RP — Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said Monday that Ekness is expected to miss approximately six weeks due to a right calf strain, Kyle Sielaff of Marlins.tv reports.
- 15-Day-ILJanson Junk SP — The Marlins placed Junk on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to right shin bone inflammation, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILEury Perez SP — The Marlins placed Perez on the 15-day injured list Friday, retroactive to Thursday, due to a right gracilis strain.
- 60-Day-ILGriffin Conine LF — Conine (hamstring) appears to be a week or two away from beginning a rehab assignment, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.
- 60-Day-ILAndrew Nardi RP — The Marlins transferred Nardi (ribcage) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
- 60-Day-ILRobby Snelling SP — Snelling underwent internal brace surgery Friday to repair a torn UCL in his left elbow.
The total sits at 8.5 with the under juiced slightly to -112, which feels right with Alcantara coming off a 95-pitch quality start and Jax capable of grinding through 5 if he has it. Game 1 of this series went 6-0 Rays behind a Drew Rasmussen one-hitter; Game 2 was a 4-3 nail-biter the Marlins took. A third tight one would not surprise anyone.
First pitch is 12:40 PM ET from loanDepot park. Tampa needs a road win to avoid dropping a series to a sub-.500 division rival; Miami gets a shot at a statement series win over the team sitting first in the AL East. Rubber matches with two starters running mid-4 ERAs tend to come down to whose pen breaks first, and right now that's a coin flip neither side wants to flip.