Tampa Bay is 34-17 and still the team to beat in the East, but the last two games have been losses and the one before that was a tie. Baltimore at 24-30 isn't exactly surging either, just trying to keep the season from getting away from them. Both teams know each other extremely well — this is the second meeting in seven days.
The pitching matchup is a rerun of last Tuesday's series in Tampa. Griffin Jax went 5 innings against Baltimore and gave up 1 run on 3 hits. Shane Baz, pitching against his old team, was even better the next night — 6 innings, 1 run, 2 hits. Tampa still found a way to win both of those games. Now Baz gets another crack on his home mound and Jax has to figure out how to flip the script from last week's Rays sweep of the matchup.
The Orioles' infield is held together with tape. Jordan Westburg had Tommy John surgery this month, Coby Mayo is out again with the back, Ryan Mountcastle isn't due back until late June at the earliest, and shortstop Luis Vazquez is dealing with a broken thumb. Tampa Bay's outfield has its own problems — Jonny DeLuca just landed on the IL with a Grade 1 hamstring strain (6-to-8 weeks), Jake Fraley needs hernia surgery, and Gavin Lux was pulled off his rehab assignment with a shoulder issue.
- Day-To-DayAustin Vernon RP — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
- Day-To-DayLogan Driscoll C — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
- Day-To-DayKeyshawn Askew RP — no
- Day-To-DayTre' Morgan 1B — Triple-A Durham placed Morgan on the 7-day injured list with a quad injury, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
- Day-To-DayAlfredo Zarraga RP — no
- 10-Day-ILJonny DeLuca RF — DeLuca is expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks after an MRI revealed a Grade 1 right hamstring strain, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
- 10-Day-ILBen Williamson 2B — Rays manager Kevin Cash said that Williamson is not in the lineup for Monday's game versus the Orioles due to back tightness, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
- 10-Day-ILJake Fraley RF — Rays manager Kevin Cash said Monday that Fraley (hernia) will require surgery and will face a recovery timeline of 6-to-8 weeks, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- Day-To-DayCoby Mayo 3B — Mayo (back) remains out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Rays.
- Day-To-DayLevi Wells P — Triple-A Norfolk placed Wells on its 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right hip discomfort, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
- Day-To-DayRichard Guasch SP — no
- Day-To-DayWill Robertson LF — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- Day-To-DayLuis Vazquez SS — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILDylan Beavers RF — Beavers (oblique) is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Yankees.
- 15-Day-ILCade Povich SP — Povich (elbow) met with Dr. Keith Meister on Tuesday and is without an official timetable for his return after receiving a cortisone injection, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- 15-Day-ILRyan Helsley RP — Helsley (elbow) played catch Friday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
The market reflects how tight this one feels: Pinnacle has the Rays at -113 on the moneyline with a fair win probability of 51.85%. DK has the total at 7.5, Pinnacle has it at 8.5 — a full-run gap between books that doesn't usually happen and tells you nobody is sure how many runs these starters are giving up. Negative EV across the board, which is the polite way of saying the books are not begging you to bet this one.
Bottom line: Tampa is the better team on paper and on the standings page, but they just dropped two in a row and they're walking into a building where Baz already proved he can handle their lineup. The Orioles need this kind of game — beat a contender at home, claw back toward .500, give the room some reason to believe the second half can be different.