TLDR: Philadelphia has lost 4 straight, gone 9-14 in September and still controls its own spot. Beat the Rays on Sunday and the Phillies are in, so 1 good afternoon cancels a month of bad ones.
Philadelphia goes into the season finale on a 4-game skid, needing a win or an Arizona loss to make the NL wild card. Zack Wheeler faces All-Star Nick Martinez, and the Rays, already AL East champions, have outscored the Phillies 14-1 in the first 2 games of the set. The game probably comes down to whether Wheeler can pitch deep enough to protect a worn-out bullpen and whether Philadelphia's slumping lineup can do anything against Martinez.
Zack Wheeler (13-5, 3.06) takes the ball at 3:05 PM ET with the season riding on it, facing All-Star Nick Martinez (15-5, 2.94). Wheeler's last start was mostly a good one: 11 strikeouts against the Brewers, but he was out after 5.2 innings and 3 earned runs. Martinez took a loss at Yankee Stadium despite giving up just 2 runs over 6. Both are good enough to hold the other side to 2 or 3 runs, which is a problem for a Phillies lineup that has scored 3 runs total in its last 4 games.
Nick Martinez
(15-5)·2.94 ERA
Sep 22 @ Yankees
L
6.0IP
2ER
7K
1BB
94P
09/27 Lineup
Zack Wheeler
(13-5)·3.06 ERA
Sep 22 vs Brewers
ND
5.2IP
3ER
11K
1BB
101P
09/27 Lineup
The Phillies' lineup is thin right now. Luis Arraez is out with a left ankle sprain that Don Mattingly called "not a great one," and the last 4 box scores show it. Philadelphia does get Jesus Luzardo back: Mattingly said he comes off the 15-day IL for the finale and is available out of the bullpen. Tampa is banged up too. Chandler Simpson (foot) is unlikely to play, Griffin Jax left Saturday's start after a 104-mph Trea Turner liner hit him in the lower back, and Shane McClanahan is already off the ALDS roster. Philadelphia is still the favorite on the board, a price that rests on the stakes more than on anything the Phillies have shown this week.
Saturday was ugly. Aaron Nola went on 2 days' rest, lasted 1 inning and gave up 3 runs. José Alvarado gave up 3 more in the 5th and was booed off the mound, and José Urquidy allowed another 3 in the 6th to make it 10-0. Philadelphia used 6 relievers in a 12-1 loss. Arizona's loss to San Diego kept the Phillies 1 game up for the final wild card, but the Diamondbacks own the tiebreaker. A Phillies win gets them in, and so does a Phillies loss paired with an Arizona loss. A Phillies loss and an Arizona win ends their season and completes their worst collapse since 1964.
Tampa's offense is in great shape. Junior Caminero hit his 42nd homer Saturday and reached 101 RBIs, Richie Palacios drove in 4, and Victor Mesa Jr. had his first 4-hit game. The Rays have taken the first 2 of this set, 2-0 and 12-1, and are AL East champions. The open question is how much of that lineup, and how much of Martinez, Tampa wants to use in a game that means far more to Philadelphia than to them.
The forecast is 62 degrees and cloudy with a 30% chance of rain and 15 mph wind, after a soaked Saturday night at Citizens Bank Park. A tired Phillies bullpen means Wheeler has to pitch deep, with Luzardo as the bridge. If Wheeler gets through 7, Philadelphia only needs a couple of runs from a lineup that hasn't produced them all week.
Live Odds
Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies — Wheeler Carries The Phillies' Whole Season Into Sunday Against Tampa | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush
