The Rays show up to Fenway with the best record in the AL East and a rotation held together by Nick Martinez and tape. Boston, scuffling along at 17-22, just swept the Tigers and now hands the ball to rookie Payton Tolle for what is becoming the most interesting start of every Red Sox week.
Martinez is the entire Rays staff right now. He's won three in a row, given up two runs across his last 20 innings, and is somehow sitting on a 1.71 ERA in May. With Pepiot done for the year, Boyle and Matz on the IL, this is what 'next man up' looks like when the next man is a 35-year-old swingman pitching like a Cy Young candidate.
Tolle is the counter. Eight strikeouts and one hit allowed over seven against Detroit on May 4, 11 punch-outs in his debut against the Yankees, and a fastball averaging 96.1 mph. Through three starts he's at 2.04 with a 0.74 WHIP and there's a real conversation in Boston about whether he ever leaves the rotation, regardless of who comes back from injury.
- Day-To-DayAustin Vernon RP — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
- Day-To-DayTy Johnson SP — Triple-A Durham placed Johnson on the 7-day injured list due to a lower-back strain, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
- Day-To-DayLogan Driscoll C — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
- Day-To-DayKeyshawn Askew RP — no
- Day-To-DayTre' Morgan 1B — Triple-A Durham placed Morgan on the 7-day injured list with a quad injury, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
- Day-To-DayAlfredo Zarraga RP — no
- Day-To-DayJohn Rooney RP — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
- Day-To-DayTJ Nichols P — Double-A Montgomery placed Nichols on its 7-day injured list April 7 due to an unspecified injury.
- Day-To-DayRanger Suarez SP — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said Friday that Suarez's (hamstring) next start will come next week "sometime in the Philly series," Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris RP — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony LF — The Red Sox placed Anthony (wrist) on the 10-day injured list Thursday, retroactive to Tuesday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
- 15-Day-ILJustin Slaten RP — Slaten (oblique) allowed one hit and struck out two over a scoreless inning for Double-A Portland on Sunday.
- 15-Day-ILDanny Coulombe RP — The Red Sox placed Coulombe on the 15-day injured list Monday with cervical spasms.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet SP — Crochet (shoulder) was able to play catch Sunday for the first time since landing on the injured list Wednesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 15-Day-ILKutter Crawford SP — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 60-Day-ILTriston Casas 1B — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
The Red Sox injury list is genuinely depressing — Crochet, Crawford, Houck, Sandoval, Suarez all unavailable in some form, plus Roman Anthony nursing a wrist and Casas long gone. The Rays aren't exactly healthy either, but Gavin Lux is reportedly tracking toward a return during this Boston series, which would be a real shot in the arm for the lineup.
The market makes Boston a -140 home favorite at a total of 7.5, which feels generous to a team starting a 22-year-old rookie against the AL's best ERA. The DK splits tell you the public agrees with the books — sharp money is on the home side, but the recreational handle is happily eating the Rays plus-money. Two starters this stingy don't usually combine to clear 7.5.
If Tolle gives Boston six clean innings, the Sox have a real shot to steal this. If Martinez keeps doing what Martinez has been doing all season, this turns into a 3-1 game in the seventh and Fenway gets quiet. Either way, this is the most compelling pitching matchup of the weekend slate.