The Rays are the best team in the American League right now and it isn't particularly close. They opened this series Friday night by turning a Jose Caballero error into a 4-run 8th inning, beating the Yankees 4-2 and stretching their division lead to 5.5 games. The bad news for Tampa: Jonny DeLuca grabbed his right hamstring legging out a single and is likely IL-bound, per manager Kevin Cash.
The pitching matchup is the kind of thing that should scare Yankees fans. Drew Rasmussen's best start of the year, by Game Score, came against this exact lineup on April 12 when he gave up 1 hit and 0 runs in 6 innings. He counters a Yankees offense that's been allergic to right-handed pitching, slashing .220 against righties as a team. Aaron Judge is the headline symptom: 0-for-4 Friday, a career-high 11 games without an RBI, and a 1-for-24 skid that's dropped his average to .245.
Ryan Weathers has actually been the Yankees' best news of late. He's 16th in MLB with 61 strikeouts in 50-plus innings and is carrying a 1.13 WHIP. Bad news: the Rays are 12-2 against left-handed starters this year. So the splits say Weathers can miss bats and the Rays will hit him anyway. Pick your poison.
- Day-To-DayAustin Vernon RP — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
- Day-To-DayLogan Driscoll C — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
- Day-To-DayKeyshawn Askew RP — no
- Day-To-DayTre' Morgan 1B — Triple-A Durham placed Morgan on the 7-day injured list with a quad injury, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
- Day-To-DayAlfredo Zarraga RP — no
- Day-To-DayTJ Nichols P — Double-A Montgomery placed Nichols on its 7-day injured list April 7 due to an unspecified injury.
- 10-Day-ILBen Williamson 2B — Rays manager Kevin Cash said that Williamson is not in the lineup for Monday's game versus the Orioles due to back tightness, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
- 10-Day-ILJake Fraley RF — Rays manager Kevin Cash said Monday that Fraley (hernia) will require surgery and will face a recovery timeline of 6-to-8 weeks, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- Day-To-DayTravis MacGregor SP — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez LF — Dominguez (shoulder) resumed hitting off a tee Wednesday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 10-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton DH — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that Stanton (calf) is doing "more dynamic stuff" but isn't yet ready to ramp up running, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 15-Day-ILMax Fried SP — The Yankees placed Fried on the 15-day injured list Friday due to a left elbow bone bruise, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- 15-Day-ILAngel Chivilli RP — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILClarke Schmidt SP — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
Beyond DeLuca, the Rays are navigating a beaten-up outfield (Jake Fraley out 6-to-8 weeks after hernia surgery, Gavin Lux back on the shelf) and lost Ryan Pepiot for the year to hip surgery. They keep winning anyway. The Yankees are without Max Fried (elbow bone bruise), Giancarlo Stanton, and Jasson Dominguez, which makes the Judge slump considerably more painful than it would otherwise be.
The market still likes the Yankees as a home favorite, but the EV numbers on both sides are negative across the board — this is a game to watch, not a game to force. If you're betting it anyway, the read is simple: Rays are 4-0 in the season series, the matchup data favors Tampa, and Rasmussen has already proven he can shove against this lineup. The Yankees need a pivot game before the deficit becomes a real problem.