The first 2 games went about how the Rays draw it up. Game 1 was a 1-0 win built on pitching. Game 2 was a 5-2 win that New York mostly handed over: 4 errors, 3 of them in the 1st inning, then a 4-run 5th that broke a 1-1 tie and chased Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler. Tampa Bay hasn't needed to slug. It's needed the other team to blink, and the Yankees have done it twice.
Both clubs looked good coming into October. The Rays finished 98-64, and the Yankees closed the regular season by beating Boston 9-0 and 9-2. None of that has carried into this series for New York. The Yankees still have Rodon lined up for Game 4, but he only pitches if Fried wins this one.
Judge is the injury that matters, but Tampa Bay's list has real holes too. Shane McClanahan (forearm) is off the ALDS roster, Griffin Jax is day-to-day with a lower-back contusion that knocked him out of a start against Philadelphia, and Ryan Pepiot has been out since hip surgery in May. The Rays are getting through this round on a thin staff and a manager who keeps finding the right arm. New York lost Clarke Schmidt (biceps) for the season, which puts even more on Fried.
The forecast is 65 degrees, clear, with a 9 mph wind, so the weather won't help either offense. The Yankees need runs from a lineup that's been quiet for 18 innings, against a pitcher who's been better on the road than anywhere else. If they can't do it, Tampa Bay celebrates in the Bronx.