The Red Sox lost the opener of this series on a Mike Yastrzemski walk-off in the 10th and now they're trying to avoid getting swept by the team with the best record in MLB. The Braves are 31-15. The Red Sox are 19-26 and 27th in MLB in runs scored. The vibes do not match.
Brayan Bello gets the ball, and Boston is doing something a little different with him. After a 9.12 ERA through his first six traditional starts, the club ran him behind an opener last time out against Detroit and he gave them 7 innings of 1-run, 7-strikeout ball. Per the Globe, Chad Tracy confirmed there's no opener this time — Bello is starting cold in Atlanta. Bold.
Grant Holmes counters for the Braves, fresh off a stint where Atlanta yanked him from the rotation, slid him to swingman, and then walked him back in for the Cubs series. The 4.35 ERA is fine. The leash, given how this season has gone for him, probably isn't long.
The market is telling on the public. 73% of DK spread bets and 86% of moneyline bets are on Atlanta, and both home sides carry the worst EV on the board. Pinnacle has the Braves at -150 with a fair win probability of 58.5%, so the favorite is the right side — just not at the juice DK is selling it for. The total is the more interesting split: Pinnacle sits at 8.5, DK at 7.5. That's a real disagreement on whether Bello-vs-this-lineup is a powder keg.
- Day-To-DayConnor Wong C — Wong is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Yankees, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris RP — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILTrevor Story SS — Story is seeking additional opinions about whether surgery is needed for his sports hernia, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony LF — Anthony (wrist) began playing catch Friday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILDanny Coulombe RP — Coulombe (neck) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Portland on Friday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet SP — Crochet (shoulder) threw a 20-pitch bullpen session Wednesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILKutter Crawford SP — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 60-Day-ILTanner Houck SP — Houck (elbow) has been making throws out to 105 feet three days per week, MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter RP — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
- 7-Day ILEli White CF — White (concussion) is expected to come off the injured list when first eligible May 18, Jesus Cano of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILRonald Acuna Jr. RF — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Acuna (hamstring) likely won't be activated from the 10-day injured list until he can play the outfield, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILSean Murphy C — Manager Walk Weiss said Tuesday that Murphy (finger) is expected to be sidelined at least eight weeks, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- 15-Day-ILHurston Waldrep SP — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Waldrep (elbow) will throw a bullpen session in about a week and could be ready to rejoin the team in June, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- suspensionJurickson Profar LF — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILDylan Dodd RP — Dodd (back) is expected to begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Gwinnett in the coming days, Lindsay Crosby of BravesToday.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILJoe Jimenez RP — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
Boston's injury page reads like a rotation graveyard — Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Sandoval, Oviedo all unavailable, plus Story and Roman Anthony on the position-player side. Atlanta is missing Acuña, Sean Murphy for at least 8 weeks with the finger, and Profar for the full year on the PED suspension, and they're still running away with the division. That's the gap right now.
Pick a lane: trust that the opener-less Bello experiment goes the way the last one did and grab Boston at plus money, or just accept that the better team at home with a real bullpen takes care of business in a getaway-day matinee. The under at 7.5 on DK is the one that needs the most things to break right.