Both rosters are banged up in very different ways heading into this set. Boston is missing multiple rotation and bullpen arms to injury, while Baltimore is playing out the string on a roster it actively subtracted from at the deadline — context that matters more here than any number on a board.
Boston and Baltimore play 3 more times before this one, so whatever shape either club is in by Sunday will look at least a little different than it does today. What's already fixed is the injury picture: Garrett Crochet remains on the 60-day IL working back from a lat and shoulder issue, and Adley Rutschman — dealt from Baltimore to Boston at the deadline — is day-to-day with an elbow problem and out of the lineup for now.
Baltimore's own subtractions cut deeper on paper. Both Félix Bautista and Ryan Helsley, the closers the Orioles built around, have been on the 60-day IL, and first baseman Ryan Mountcastle is done for the year after a significant oblique setback. That's a lot of high-leverage talent missing from a club still mathematically alive, and it's the real story of this series — not who's hot over the last week, but who's actually available to pitch the eighth and ninth.