Payton Tolle (3-2, 2.28 ERA) gets the Game 2 nod after a six-inning shutout of the Orioles last week. Nick Martinez (5-2, 2.29) counters for Tampa, which sounds like a pitchers' duel until you remember Martinez just got rocked for 6 earned in 4 innings by Detroit his last time out — the start that ended an 11-outing streak of him allowing 2 or fewer.
Tolle is the most fun thing happening in Boston right now. The 6-foot-6 rookie has allowed 3 runs or fewer in 10 of his 11 career starts, and per the Globe he's the first Red Sox arm to open a season with 8-plus starts at that clip since Chris Sale in 2018. He's also striking guys out at a real clip — 11 K's in his season debut against the Yankees — and the extension off the mound makes the fastball play even bigger. Confidence in a Red Sox starter is a weird feeling lately. Lean into it.
Tampa is 38-25 and the better roster, but they were swept at home by the Tigers last week and just dropped 2 of 3 in Miami before grabbing Monday's opener 3-1. The book on Martinez right now is that the Detroit start might've been a blip — every other outing this year has been steady — but if Boston gets to him early like the Tigers did, the Rays bullpen is doing a lot of heavy lifting on a getaway day.
The Red Sox infirmary is the more relevant story. Roman Anthony (finger) is still shut down from swinging, Trevor Story is post-op on a sports hernia, Triston Casas is just now close to swinging again, and the rotation is missing Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Sandoval and Oviedo. That's not a depth chart, that's a triage list. The one piece of good news: Garrett Whitlock (knee) is likely to be activated off the 15-day IL Tuesday, which would be a real bullpen reinforcement.
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris RP — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony LF — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy said Monday that Anthony (finger) remains shut down from swinging a bat, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILNick Sogard 3B — Sogard is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Guardians, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Whitlock RP — Whitlock (knee) is likely to be activated from the 15-day injured list Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILJovani Moran RP — The Red Sox placed Moran on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to Friday, with left elbow inflammation, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 60-Day-ILPatrick Sandoval SP — Sandoval (biceps) will make his next rehab start for Triple-A Worcester on Thursday, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILGarrett Crochet SP — Crochet (shoulder) was diagnosed with a low-grade lat strain Tuesday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Story SS — Story underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia Thursday and will be sidelined 6-10 weeks, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- Day-To-DayChandler Simpson LF — Simpson (thumb) is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Red Sox, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
- Day-To-DayAustin Vernon RP — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
- Day-To-DayTre' Morgan 1B — Triple-A Durham placed Morgan on the 7-day injured list with a quad injury, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
- Day-To-DayAlfredo Zarraga RP — no
- 10-Day-ILJonny DeLuca RF — DeLuca (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham on Friday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- 10-Day-ILJake Fraley RF — Rays manager Kevin Cash said Monday that Fraley (hernia) will require surgery and will face a recovery timeline of 6-to-8 weeks, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- 15-Day-ILCraig Kimbrel RP — Kimbrel (wrist) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- 15-Day-ILJesse Scholtens RP — Scholtens was charged with a blown save and dropped to 5-3 on the season in Monday's 9-7 loss to the Orioles in 13 innings after yielding five runs (three earned) on four hits across 1.1 frames. He struck out one batter.
Pinnacle has this one as close to a coin flip as you'll see — Rays -110, Red Sox -100, total at 7.5 with the under juiced to -120. That tracks with two sub-2.30 ERAs on the mound and a Boston lineup that scored a combined 4 runs across its last 3 games. If you trust Tolle's profile more than Martinez's last outing, the dog price is right there. If you trust the Rays at home, you've been rewarded all year.