The Red Sox are 20-27 and the Royals are 20-28. This is not a marquee Monday. But it's the kind of game where Boston, currently buried in injuries and a sub-.500 hole, gets a genuine chance to stack a road win against a Kansas City club that's lost 4 of its last 5.
Ranger Suarez is the reason Boston is even chalk here. He returned from a hamstring issue on May 14 against his old Phillies and went 5.1 innings, 0 runs, 8 strikeouts on 76 pitches. A 2.44 ERA after that line says the stuff is real, even if the pitch count will still be on a leash. Bailey Falter, meanwhile, is making this start because the Royals' rotation is a triage unit — Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic are both on the 15-day IL, and Falter was just activated off the IL himself on May 16 after an elbow issue and a Triple-A rehab. The 10.13 ERA is a tiny sample, but it's not nothing.
- Day-To-DayCeddanne Rafaela CF — Rafaela went 2-for-3 with a walk, a double, a stolen base and was caught stealing in Friday's 3-2 extra-inning loss to Atlanta.
- Day-To-DayCarlos Narvaez C — Narvaez (finger) is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Royals.
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris RP — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony LF — Anthony (wrist) was still sore when taking some swings Monday and will not swing a bat again until at least Friday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILTrevor Story SS — Story is seeking additional opinions about whether surgery is needed for his sports hernia, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 15-Day-ILDanny Coulombe RP — Coulombe (neck) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Portland on Friday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet SP — Crochet (shoulder) threw a 20-pitch bullpen session Wednesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILKutter Crawford SP — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Simonelli SP — no
- Day-To-DayJavier Vaz 2B — Vaz (fingers) has produced a .238/.304/.262 slash line with zero home runs and three stolen bases in 10 games since being activated from Double-A Northwest Arkansas' 7-day injured list April 22.
- Day-To-DayTyson Guerrero RP — no
- 10-Day-ILJonathan India 2B — The Royals announced Tuesday that India underwent season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder.
- 15-Day-ILCole Ragans SP — Ragans (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILKris Bubic SP — Bubic (3-2) took the loss against the White Sox on Thursday, pitching four innings and allowing five runs on five hits and three walks while striking out one batter.
- 15-Day-ILMatt Strahm RP — Strahm allowed no hits and a walk while striking out two over a scoreless inning in Friday's win against the Mariners.
- 15-Day-ILCarlos Estevez RP — Estevez (foot) was diagnosed with a right rotator cuff strain Thursday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
The Boston injury list is the bigger headline. Trevor Story is seeking additional opinions on whether he needs sports hernia surgery. Roman Anthony still isn't swinging a bat through the weekend. Garrett Crochet just got back to a 20-pitch bullpen. Carlos Narvaez is out of Monday's lineup with a finger issue, and Ceddanne Rafaela is day-to-day after getting caught stealing in Friday's extra-inning loss to Atlanta. That's a lineup playing shorthanded against a depleted Royals rotation, which is basically why this line exists where it does.
The market is split in a way worth noting. DK has the spread at Boston -1.5 while Pinnacle is on the -1.0, and the total is 8 at Pinnacle, 9 at DK — a full run apart on the run line and a full run apart on the total. Public money on the Royals side (65% of spread bets, 64% of moneyline bets on Boston) suggests sharps and squares aren't really agreeing. EV on every market is negative, so there's no free lunch here. The cleanest read: if you trust Suarez to give you 5 quality innings, Boston ML is the side the model likes.
Bottom line — this is a get-right spot for the Red Sox if there is one. Suarez has been their best starter since arriving, the Royals are running a bullpen game starter out there, and Bobby Witt Jr. is going to have to do most of it himself for Kansas City. First pitch 6:40 PM local at Kauffman.