First pitch is 6:35 PM ET at Yankee Stadium with Ranger Suarez (2-3, 3.38) on the mound for Boston against Will Warren (7-1, 3.22) for the Yankees. Pinnacle has New York at -121 on the moneyline and the total sitting at 8.5 — basically a coin flip with the home team getting a small nudge.
The pitching card tells you the records, but the wrinkle is Warren's history against this specific opponent. He owns a 9.42 ERA in 3 career starts against Boston, including a first inning where the Red Sox dropped 6 on him. Warren's been excellent overall in 2026, but the Sox seem to have his number, and now they get him without Aaron Judge anchoring the lineup behind him.
That Judge news is the story of the series. The Yankees announced Thursday that he has a stress fracture of his first rib on the right side and will be re-evaluated in 4-6 weeks, meaning the Bombers could be without their MVP into August. Spencer Jones got the call up from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to help fill the void, but you don't replace Judge — you just try to survive him being out.
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris RP — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILNick Sogard 3B — Sogard is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Guardians, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony LF — Anthony (finger) felt discomfort while hitting off a tee Thursday and has been shut down from swinging, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Whitlock RP — Whitlock (knee) will embark on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Worcester on Saturday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 60-Day-ILGarrett Crochet SP — Crochet (shoulder) was diagnosed with a low-grade lat strain Tuesday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Story SS — Story underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia Thursday and will be sidelined 6-10 weeks, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 60-Day-ILRomy Gonzalez 1B — Gonzalez (shoulder) took batting practice at Fenway Park on Wednesday, WEEI reports.
- 60-Day-ILPatrick Sandoval SP — Sandoval (biceps/elbow) will begin a rehab assignment this weekend, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
- Day-To-DayPayton Henry C — The Yankees signed Henry to a minor-league contract Monday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
- Day-To-DayEric Reyzelman SP — no
- Day-To-DayTravis MacGregor SP — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILAaron Judge RF — The Yankees announced Thursday that Judge has a stress fracture of his first rib on his right side and will be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks before being re-evaluated, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJasson Dominguez LF — Dominguez (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment Friday, Greg Joyce of the New York Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILGiancarlo Stanton DH — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Thursday that Stanton (calf) will not be activated from the 10-day injured list during the team's June 8-14 road trip, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILAngel Chivilli RP — Chivilli (shoulder) has resumed throwing off a mound and is slated to throw live batting practice during the coming week, per MLB.com.
- 15-Day-ILMax Fried SP — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that Fried (elbow) played catch Monday, Greg Joyce of the New York Post reports.
It's not like Boston is showing up at full strength either. Trevor Story is 6-10 weeks out after sports hernia surgery, Garrett Crochet's down with a lat strain, and the IL is stacked with arms (Houck, Crawford, Sandoval, Oviedo). But after stealing the opener 5-3 on Friday, the Sox at 27-35 are trying to claw back into relevance, and a Judge-less Yankees rotation spot is exactly the kind of game you have to bank.
Suarez is the variable here. He'd been carrying a 1.12 ERA from mid-April through late May before two clunkers — 5 runs to Atlanta on May 26, then 4 runs in 5 innings at Cleveland on May 31 (he did punch out 10 in that one). If the version of Suarez that was untouchable for 6 weeks shows up, Boston walks into Yankee Stadium and takes 2 of 3. If it's the guy from the last two starts, Warren makes him pay.
Lean: the Red Sox at +110 on the moneyline is the play if you think Warren's Boston problem is real and that the lineup without Judge is just a regular AL East offense. Yankees should still be favored at home — they're 37-26 for a reason — but this number feels generous given who isn't in pinstripes.