TLDR: For the second October in a row, the Red Sox walk into the Bronx for a best-of-3 against the Yankees, and this time Boston shows up with half its lineup on the injured list. Game 1 is Tuesday, September 29, and in a 3-game series the opener is worth a lot more than 1 win.
The Yankees send Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler into Game 1 of a best-of-3 Wild Card Series against a Red Sox team missing much of its lineup and several key arms. Boston hasn't named a starter, though Payton Tolle has pitched very well against New York, and Aaron Judge's calf is the biggest unanswered question on the Yankees' side. The clubs split their 13 regular-season games almost evenly, and cool, clear weather favors the pitchers.
−Stanton and Grisham still working back from injuries
−Schlittler lasted only 3 innings last start
On the Yankees' side, Cam Schlittler gets Game 1. He went 14-6 with a 1.95 ERA and is the favorite for the AL Cy Young, with Max Fried lined up for Game 2 and Gerrit Cole for a Game 3 if there is one. Boston hasn't named a starter yet. The projections point to rookie lefty Payton Tolle, who has a 0.69 ERA in 13 innings against New York this year, but until the Red Sox announce it, treat that as a guess. Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez are the other arms in line for this series.
TBD
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TBD
ND
—IP
—ER
—K
—BB
—P
09/29 Lineup
Cam Schlittler
(14-6)·1.95 ERA
Sep 24 vs Rays
ND
3.0IP
1ER
5K
2BB
70P
09/29 Lineup
Schlittler's last line is the one thing to watch. He went 3 innings on 70 pitches against Tampa Bay, which looks like a club managing his workload before October, not a pitcher in trouble. Still, it means he hasn't gone deep in a while heading into the biggest start of his year. The bigger lineup question is Aaron Judge. He's on the 10-day IL with a calf injury and has said he plans to be ready for Game 1: "The Bronx is a magical place in October. I don't want to miss out on that opportunity." Giancarlo Stanton has been taking live batting practice at Double-A and could be available in some role, and Trent Grisham has also taken live BP while he works back from a hamstring injury. Whether those 3 are on the roster changes the Yankees lineup a lot, and the prices will move once they're announced.
Boston's problems are on offense. Masataka Yoshida, Triston Casas, Mickey Gasper and Curtis Mead are all on the IL, and interim manager Chad Tracy has called Mead a long shot for the postseason. Eli White was moved to the 60-day IL. The Red Sox have been winning with pitching instead: in 4 of their last 5, they allowed 0, 1, 3 and 0 runs, and a 1-0 loss to Cleveland is also in that stretch. That's how an offense this thin gets into October, and it's also the risk in a series against a staff like New York's.
The pitching staff has been hit too. Garrett Crochet (lat) and Kutter Crawford (forearm) are out, Justin Slaten won't be back this season, and reliever Tyron Guerrero went on the 15-day IL with a right shoulder strain. Every late inning Boston has to cover comes out of a smaller bullpen than it had a month ago, and those late innings are where a close series gets decided.
The season series couldn't have been much closer. New York took it 7-6 and went 4-2 against Boston at home. That's the same Yankee Stadium edge that decided last year's Wild Card, when New York won 2-1. Tuesday's weather looks good for pitchers: 63 degrees and clear with a 4 mph breeze, first pitch at 8:00 PM ET. If this turns into a pitching duel, Boston's pitching has at least shown recently that it can win one.
