Who is favored in Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays?

Toronto Blue Jays are favored on the moneyline.

Who is predicted to win Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays?

Our pick is Cincinnati Reds. Toronto is being priced on Scherzer's name, but he's making a short-rest start after a 5-inning, 93-pitch outing in Baltimore, and the Blue Jays have lost 4 of 5. Williamson has been steady since coming off the IL, so expect Cincinnati's price to come in as the lineups and the leash become clear.

Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays

By JR·2 min read

CIN(75-86)

TOR(78-83)

Sunday3:07 PM ET

TLDR: The season ends Sunday afternoon at Rogers Centre, and nothing is riding on it except Max Scherzer, who is 42, undecided about retiring, and heading to the mound knowing this could be the last start of his career. The Reds and Blue Jays have split the first 2 games of the set, so the rubber game settles the series.

SUN SEP 27, 3:07 PM

Spread

WIN

Total

Reds

(75-86)

WLWLW

Blue Jays

(78-83)

LWLLL

The Reds and Blue Jays finish the season with the series tied 1-1 and Max Scherzer starting on short rest in what may be his final career start. Brandon Williamson has been steady since his September return and is coming off 6 scoreless innings in Atlanta. Toronto's offense has gone quiet during a 1-4 stretch, so the game probably comes down to how long each starter lasts and who pitches after them.

Reds

Williamson: 6 scoreless innings on 68 pitches at Atlanta
No more than 3 earned runs in any start since returning
Scored 5 in both games at Rogers Centre
Bullpen without Santillan and Julian Garcia
Williamson struck out only 2, relies on his defense

Blue Jays

Scherzer struck out 7 in his last start
Took the series opener 6-5 over Cincinnati
Scherzer on short rest, 6.14 ERA
1-4 last 5, 3 or fewer runs in 4 of them
Rotation gutted: Cease, Bieber, Taillon all out

The arms explain most of the price. Scherzer (3-9, 6.14) is going on short rest, 4 days after Baltimore got him for 4 runs over 5 innings. He struck out 7 in that one, but he also walked 3 and needed 93 pitches to get through it. Brandon Williamson (5-4, 4.89) goes for Cincinnati, and his last outing was the opposite kind of start: 6 scoreless innings in Atlanta on 68 pitches, with 3 hits, no walks and only 2 strikeouts. First pitch is 3:07 PM ET.

Brandon Williamson

(5-4)·4.89 ERA

Sep 22 @ Braves

6.0IP

0ER

0BB

68P

09/27 Lineup

Max Scherzer

(3-9)·6.14 ERA

Sep 23 @ Orioles

5.0IP

4ER

3BB

93P

09/27 Lineup

Williamson's season ERA isn't a great guide to where he is right now. He missed April through August with a shoulder injury, came off the 60-day IL on September 1, and in 5 appearances since he hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs in any of them. The Reds are treating these last starts as an audition for their 2027 rotation, which is why he's pitching at all: he took Chase Burns' spot when Burns went down with a groin injury. Toronto has the shorter moneyline, and it's built more on a pitcher's name than on his last 3 months.

Form backs that up. Toronto is 1-4 in its last 5, including 0-3 against Baltimore, and has scored 3 runs or fewer in 4 of those games. The one win was a 6-5 opener against these Reds, and Saturday's game went the other way, 5-1. Cincinnati is 3-2 in its last 5 and has put up 5 runs in each of its 2 games in Toronto.

Scherzer is the reason to watch. He says he's "pretty healthy" and feels like he's in mid-season form, and he's putting the retirement decision off until the winter. "You never know; it could be my last," he said Saturday. A 3-time Cy Young winner with 3,550 strikeouts deserves a proper send-off. The catch is a short-rest start on the last day of a losing season, which usually comes with a short leash, so Toronto's bullpen could be pitching a lot of the middle innings.

Both injury lists read like the end of a season. Toronto is without Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber and Jameson Taillon from the rotation, plus Anthony Santander and Addison Barger from the outfield. Cincinnati's pen is missing Tony Santillan (hip surgery) and Julian Garcia (loose bodies in his elbow), and Hunter Greene's second Tommy John surgery hangs over their 2027 plans.

Neither club is playing for anything after Sunday, so how long the starters last will decide the game. If Williamson keeps getting the quick, weak contact he got in Atlanta, the Reds can get through 6 innings before their thin bullpen has to pitch. If Scherzer's short-rest start ends in the 4th, Toronto has to cover a lot of innings with arms nobody was counting on in April.

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