The Reds and Cardinals open a weekend set at Busch with first pitch at 7:15 PM CT, and Cincinnati is asking a lot from a guy who hasn't been able to give it. Brady Singer (2-5, 6.18) draws Kyle Leahy (5-3, 4.25) in a matchup the Pinnacle market has priced as a coin flip with a lean — Cardinals -140, Reds +127, total 9.5.
Singer's May was rough in a way the seasonal line almost undersells. He pitched into the 5th just once all month, posted an 8.47 ERA across four starts, and gave up 9 homers in 17 innings — the home run problem is the whole problem right now. His last time out he hung 5 walks and 5 innings on the Braves in a loss, and now he's heading into a ballpark where mistakes leave in a hurry.
Leahy, on the other hand, has won 3 straight decisions but the Reds specifically have his number. They torched him for 5 runs and 2 homers on May 23 in an 11-inning Cincinnati win, and across his career against Cincinnati he's carrying a 7.20 ERA without a decision. His last start was a clean 4.1 against the Cubs — 1 earned, 4 punchouts, 0 walks on 78 pitches — but the leash is short with a lineup that's already gotten to him once this month.
The bigger problem for the Reds is who's not in the box. Elly De La Cruz is on the 10-day IL with a Grade 1-2 hamstring strain, Ke'Bryan Hayes is out at third, Jose Trevino's down behind the plate, and the bullpen is shredded — Pagan, Johnson, and Ashcraft are all on the shelf, with Ashcraft now on the 60-day after a PRP injection on the elbow. Hunter Greene threw a bullpen this week, but he's not walking through that door tonight.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C — no
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont RP — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILElly De La Cruz SS — Reds manager Terry Francona said Monday that an MRI on De La Cruz's right hamstring showed between a Grade 1 and Grade 2 strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 10-Day-ILJose Trevino C — Trevino (hamstring) is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Friday, MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILKe'Bryan Hayes 3B — Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies.
- 15-Day-ILRhett Lowder SP — Reds manager Terry Francona confirmed Wednesday that Lowder (shoulder) will be reinstated from the injured list to start Sunday's game in St. Louis, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan (hamstring) underwent an MRI exam Friday that showed positive results, MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILPierce Johnson RP — Johnson threw a scoreless seventh inning in Tuesday's win over the Phillies to pick up his fourth hold of the season. He struck out two while allowing a walk.
- Day-To-DayJJ Wetherholt 2B — Wetherholt is absent from the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Rangers.
- Day-To-DayPacky Naughton RP — Naughton will undergo surgery next month to repair the damaged UCL in his left elbow, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- Day-To-DaySem Robberse SP — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
- Day-To-DayVictor Santos RP — The Red Sox traded Santos (undisclosed) and Nick Robertson to the Cardinals on Friday in exchange for Tyler O'Neill (foot), Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.
- Day-To-DayIxan Henderson SP — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
- Day-To-DayZack Thompson RP — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
- 10-Day-ILRamon Urias 3B — Urias (elbow) is expected to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Memphis as soon as this weekend, Derrick Goold and Amber Winkler of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch report.
- 10-Day-ILNathan Church LF — Church (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Memphis on Thursday, Derrick Goold and Amber Winkler of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch report.
St. Louis has its own holes — JJ Wetherholt was scratched Wednesday, Ramon Urias is rehabbing — but Lars Nootbaar is reportedly targeted for activation before this very series, which would be a real shot in the arm for the lineup. Both teams come in at a combined 4-6 over their last 10, so this is two stumbling NL Central clubs trying to grab some footing before the schedule gets meaner.
The play here is probably the under at 9.5 (-117) given Singer's homer rate against a Cardinals offense that's averaged 3.2 runs over its last 5 — except Busch in June with the wind in the wrong direction can wreck a pitching matchup faster than you can pour a beer. Cardinals -1.5 at +144 is the price worth squinting at if you trust Leahy to navigate a hobbled Reds lineup the second time around.