Cincinnati arrives on the North Side somehow stumbling and surviving at the same time. The Reds are still 20-17, which sounds fine until you notice the last 5 games are all losses and the rotation behind Hunter Greene has been held together with tape. Now they get the buzzsaw — a Cubs team that has won 5 straight, swept Arizona over the weekend, and has been close to unbeatable in their own building.
The pitching gap on the marquee tells the whole story. Imanaga is at 2.40 and just shoved 7 scoreless against the Diamondbacks his last time out. Rhett Lowder, meanwhile, is coming off one of the worst lines you'll see all month — 8 runs, 4 walks, 1.1 IP against Pittsburgh on May 2. That's the matchup. A guy in a groove versus a guy who needs a hug.
Health-wise, this is brutal for the Reds and not exactly easy for the Cubs either. Cincinnati is already without Greene and Lodolo for the rotation, Eugenio Suarez at third, and just lost Emilio Pagan out of the bullpen for 4-to-8 weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. Chicago counters with its own pitching tax: Justin Steele out until after the All-Star break, Cade Horton just had Tommy John, and Matthew Boyd hit the IL on Wednesday with a knee. The bullpen depth chart on both sides is a war zone.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont RP — The Reds re-signed Staumont to a minor-league contract Dec. 30.
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez 3B — Suarez (oblique) will take grounders on the field and flips in the batting cage Monday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
- 15-Day-ILNick Lodolo SP — Lodolo (finger) expects to face no workload limitations when he's activated from the 15-day injured list to start Friday's game against the Astros in Cincinnati, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson RP — Ferguson (oblique) allowed one run on one hit and struck out two over one inning for Double-A Chattanooga on Friday.
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson SP — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene SP — Greene (elbow) is playing catch from 110 feet and is about three weeks away from progressing to bullpen sessions, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- Day-To-DayJaxon Wiggins SP — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Wiggins was placed on Triple-A Iowa's 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right elbow inflammation, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayBrandon Birdsell RP — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.
- Day-To-DayJeff Brigham RP — The Cubs signed Brigham to a minor-league contract Thursday that includes an invitation to spring training, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd SP — The Cubs placed Boyd (knee) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday.
- 15-Day-ILRiley Martin RP — Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar RP — The Cubs placed Thielbar on the 15-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain.
- 15-Day-ILHunter Harvey RP — Harvey (triceps) will restart his throwing program Friday, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILJordan Wicks RP — Wicks (elbow) struck out two batters and allowed one hit and one walk over three scoreless innings Saturday in a rehab start for Triple-A Iowa.
The market sees it the way the eye test sees it. Chicago is a heavy moneyline favorite, the run line is set at -1.5, and the EV numbers across the board lean negative — meaning Pinnacle thinks the public number is already a hair too rich on the Cubs. DK handle is split a little weirder than the bet count, particularly on the over, where money is louder than tickets at an 8 total.
If you're a Reds fan looking for a thread to pull on, it's that road dogs against pitchers like Imanaga occasionally do the thing — get him in the 5th, attack a thinned-out bullpen, steal a 4-3 game. If you're a Cubs fan, you're just enjoying the ride. Wrigley in May, division lead, ace on the bump, opponent in freefall. There's not much to complain about.