The pitching gap on the marquee tells the whole story. Imanaga is at 2.40 and just shoved 7 scoreless against the Diamondbacks his last time out. Rhett Lowder, meanwhile, is coming off one of the worst lines you'll see all month — 8 runs, 4 walks, 1.1 IP against Pittsburgh on May 2. That's the matchup. A guy in a groove versus a guy who needs a hug.
Health-wise, this is brutal for the Reds and not exactly easy for the Cubs either. Cincinnati is already without Greene and Lodolo for the rotation, Eugenio Suarez at third, and just lost Emilio Pagan out of the bullpen for 4-to-8 weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. Chicago counters with its own pitching tax: Justin Steele out until after the All-Star break, Cade Horton just had Tommy John, and Matthew Boyd hit the IL on Wednesday with a knee. The bullpen depth chart on both sides is a war zone.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns (C)
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont (RP) — The Reds re-signed Staumont to a minor-league contract Dec. 30.02/12
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez (3B) — Suarez (oblique) will take grounders on the field and flips in the batting cage Monday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.05/04
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan (RP) — Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.05/06
- 15-Day-ILNick Lodolo (SP) — Lodolo (finger) expects to face no workload limitations when he's activated from the 15-day injured list to start Friday's game against the Astros in Cincinnati, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports.05/05
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson (RP) — Ferguson (oblique) allowed one run on one hit and struck out two over one inning for Double-A Chattanooga on Friday.05/03
- OutAlex Young (RP) — Young revealed in a post on his personal Instagram account that he underwent season-ending surgery on his left elbow March 31.12/09
- OutCarson Spiers (SP) — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.11/24
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson (SP) — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/06
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene (SP) — Greene (elbow) is playing catch from 110 feet and is about three weeks away from progressing to bullpen sessions, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.04/28
- Day-To-DayJaxon Wiggins (SP) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Wiggins was placed on Triple-A Iowa's 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right elbow inflammation, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.04/21
- Day-To-DayBrandon Birdsell (RP) — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.04/08
- Day-To-DayJeff Brigham (RP) — The Cubs signed Brigham to a minor-league contract Thursday that includes an invitation to spring training, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.03/31
- 15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd (SP) — The Cubs placed Boyd (knee) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday.05/07
- 15-Day-ILRiley Martin (RP) — Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.04/28
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Thielbar (RP) — The Cubs placed Thielbar on the 15-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain.04/25
- 15-Day-ILHunter Harvey (RP) — Harvey (triceps) will restart his throwing program Friday, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.04/21
- 15-Day-ILJordan Wicks (RP) — Wicks (elbow) struck out two batters and allowed one hit and one walk over three scoreless innings Saturday in a rehab start for Triple-A Iowa.04/21
- 15-Day-ILEthan Roberts (RP) — The Cubs placed Roberts on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with an undisclosed injury.04/14
- 60-Day-ILJustin Steele (SP) — Manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Steele's (elbow) setback will keep him sidelined until after the All-Star break, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.04/29
- 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge (RP) — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.04/24
- 60-Day-ILCade Horton (SP) — Horton (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Thursday and is expected to be sidelined up to 16 months, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.04/18
- 60-Day-ILTyler Austin (1B) — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Austin underwent a patellar tendon debridement procedure on his right knee Tuesday and will be out for "months," Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.03/25
- 60-Day-ILShelby Miller (RP) — Miller (elbow) was placed on the 60-day injured list by the Cubs on Sunday.03/01
The market sees it the way the eye test sees it. Chicago is a heavy moneyline favorite, the run line is set at -1.5, and the EV numbers across the board lean negative — meaning Pinnacle thinks the public number is already a hair too rich on the Cubs. DK handle is split a little weirder than the bet count, particularly on the over, where money is louder than tickets at an 8 total.
If you're a Reds fan looking for a thread to pull on, it's that road dogs against pitchers like Imanaga occasionally do the thing — get him in the 5th, attack a thinned-out bullpen, steal a 4-3 game. If you're a Cubs fan, you're just enjoying the ride. Wrigley in May, division lead, ace on the bump, opponent in freefall. There's not much to complain about.