Cincinnati and Cleveland open a weekend set with both clubs sitting a game over .500 and both pitching staffs nursing real questions. The Reds have won 3 of their last 5; the Guardians have flipped their week, dropping 2 then ripping off 3 straight. It's the kind of mid-May matchup where one bullpen meltdown decides the series.
Tanner Bibee is 0-5. That's the headline and it's also a lie. Over his last 5 starts he's given up 2 earned runs or fewer in 4 of them — Cleveland's offense has just refused to score for him, putting up 2 or fewer runs in 4 of those same games. He punched out 9 over 6 innings on May 9. The record is brutal; the stuff is fine.
Andrew Abbott is the more stable bet on paper. His last time out he went 6 innings against the Astros, allowed 3 hits, walked 1, struck out 5, and trimmed his ERA to 4.47. The Reds are 6-3 ATS in his starts with a set spread, which tracks — he gives them length and keeps them in games even when the offense sputters.
The Guardians lineup is the actual swing factor here. Jose Ramirez has been stuck in an uncharacteristic slump (.218 entering this week) and Stephen Vogt finally bumped him up to the 2-hole to try and shake something loose. Steven Kwan and Kyle Manzardo have been quiet too. Cleveland is also the worst team in baseball against changeups by run value, which matters because Abbott throws his around 20% of the time.
Cincinnati's problem is the staff behind Abbott. Hunter Greene is on the 60-day, Rhett Lowder is on the 15-day and just started throwing again, Brandon Williamson got bumped to the 60-day, and Emilio Pagan is looking at 4-to-8 weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. Eugenio Suarez is also on the IL with an oblique. This is a roster that needs Abbott to eat innings — the bullpen is thin and the rotation depth is gone.
- Day-To-DayConnor Burns C — no
- Day-To-DayJosh Staumont RP — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILEugenio Suarez 3B — Suarez (oblique) will resume hitting Tuesday and is set for an MRI on Thursday to check the progress of his healing, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILRhett Lowder SP — Reds manager Terry Francona said that Lowder (shoulder) will resume throwing Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 15-Day-ILCaleb Ferguson RP — Ferguson (oblique) walked one over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.
- 15-Day-ILEmilio Pagan RP — Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
- 60-Day-ILHunter Greene SP — Greene (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session May 26, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
- 60-Day-ILBrandon Williamson SP — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
- Day-To-DayCarlos Hernandez RP — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.
- 10-Day-ILGabriel Arias SS — no
- 15-Day-ILShawn Armstrong RP — Armstrong (groin) allowed one run on one hit and one walk while striking out two over one inning for Double-A Akron on Tuesday.
- 15-Day-ILAndrew Walters RP — Walters (lat) was returned from his rehab assignment due to a viral illness, MLB.com reports.
Pinnacle has the Guardians at -132 with the total at 8. Fair enough — they're home, they're the slightly hotter team, and Bibee is due to actually get a win at some point in his career. But if Ramirez and Kwan can't square up Abbott's changeup, the under and a Reds upset both get interesting in a hurry.